Heracles vs Groningen Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
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      "away_win_prob": 0.4582,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2594,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.18,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.86,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.54,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
      "home_win_prob": 0.2824,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Groningen",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "50%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "0%",
      "winner_name": "Groningen"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.77,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Groningen",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.1376,
        "edge_gap": 0.1762,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5962,
        "model_prob": 0.4586,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 45.9,
          "draw": 25.9,
          "home": 28.2
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.61
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.61,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Groningen Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.68,
        "market_odds": 1.61,
        "model_odds": 2.18,
        "overround": 4.2,
        "prob_edge": -16.2,
        "value_pct": -26.1,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 83.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 16,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 74.3,
        "no_prob": 37.0,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 63.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 63.0
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.77,
        "home_expected": 1.36,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 10.5
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 9.3
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 7.7
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.2
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            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Heracles or Draw",
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          {
            "key": "12",
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            "key": "X2",
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            "prob": 71.7
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        "pick_key": "12",
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        "pick_prob": 74.0
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 45.8,
        "draw_pct": 25.9,
        "home_pct": 28.2,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Groningen"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.13,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "over_prob": 60.5,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 60.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.13,
        "under_prob": 39.5
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "edge": 36.5,
        "implied_prob": 20.7,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Heracles Win",
        "model_prob": 28.2,
        "odds": 4.84
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Groningen",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Heracles",
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      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 19.83,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 20.55,
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 64.59,
          "gap_pp": -4.09,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 60.5
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 35.41,
          "gap_pp": 4.09,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 39.5
        }
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      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 4.84,
          "early": 4.84,
          "implied_closing_pct": 19.83,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 19.83,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
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        {
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        {
          "closing": 2.7,
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      "same_bookmaker": true,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.36,
    "homepage_pick": null,
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "featured": true,
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        "value_side": "under"
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        "decision": "no_bet",
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5962,
        "max_ev": 0.031,
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        "tier": "lean"
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      {
        "decision": "lean",
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        "yes_prob": 63.0
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        "tier": "risk",
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    ],
    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 202,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/202.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Groningen",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
      "country_name": "Netherlands",
      "fixture_id": 1381167,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 206,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/206.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Heracles",
      "league_country": "Netherlands",
      "league_id": 88,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/88.webp",
      "league_name": "Eredivisie",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-17 12:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
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            "best_odd": 1.61,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": 0.0058,
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            "model_prob": 0.259,
            "p_final": 0.2154
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1748,
            "best_odd": 4.84,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "implied_prob": 0.1983,
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            "p_final": 0.213
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.55,
          "edge_no": -0.0064,
          "edge_yes": 0.0064,
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          "ev_no": -0.0269,
          "ev_yes": -0.0235,
          "implied_no": 0.3764,
          "implied_yes": 0.6236,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.9,
          "edge_over": -0.0518,
          "edge_under": 0.0518,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0925,
          "ev_under": 0.1455,
          "implied_over": 0.6568,
          "implied_under": 0.3432,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.13,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
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      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
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      "game_type": {
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        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
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          "total_xg": 3.13,
          "under_prob": 0.395,
          "xg_diff": 0.41
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.031,
          "implied_prob": 0.1983,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.2824,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Heracles",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0655,
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          "implied_prob": 0.5962,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4586,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Groningen"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0064,
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          "implied_prob": 0.6236,
          "model_prob": 0.63,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0518,
          "ev": 0.1455,
          "implied_prob": 0.3432,
          "model_prob": 0.395,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
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      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
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        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1455,
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        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.4586,
        "draw": 0.259,
        "home": 0.2824
      },
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        "high_total_goals",
        "longshot_high_variance"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Groningen",
        "home": "Heracles"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.054599,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1455,
        "implied_prob": 0.3432,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.395,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "weak",
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": true
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1381167,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T12:29:13.104772+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}