Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 0.93,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1955,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.495,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.505,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2741,
      "fair_odds_away": 5.12,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.65,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.89,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.66,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5304,
      "over_25_prob": 0.479,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.521
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Legia Warszawa or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Legia Warszawa"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.93,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Legia Warszawa",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.1216,
        "edge_gap": 0.2555,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6515,
        "model_prob": 0.53,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 19.6,
          "draw": 27.4,
          "home": 53.0
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.45
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.45,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Legia Warszawa Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.53,
        "market_odds": 1.45,
        "model_odds": 1.89,
        "overround": 5.9,
        "prob_edge": -16.1,
        "value_pct": -23.3,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 8,
        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 60.5,
        "home_clean_sheet": 10,
        "home_failed_to_score": 7,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 81.0,
        "no_prob": 49.5,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 50.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 50.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.93,
        "home_expected": 1.66,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 11.6
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 10.3
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          {
            "away": 1,
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            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.6
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Legia Warszawa or Draw",
            "prob": 80.4
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Legia Warszawa or Motor Lublin",
            "prob": 72.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Motor Lublin",
            "prob": 47.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Legia Warszawa or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 80.4
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 19.6,
        "draw_pct": 27.4,
        "home_pct": 53.0,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Legia Warszawa"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.59,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 47.9,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 52.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.59,
        "under_prob": 52.1
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 31.5,
        "implied_prob": 20.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 27.4,
        "odds": 4.8
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Motor Lublin",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Legia Warszawa",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 65.15,
          "gap_pp": -12.16,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 53.0
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 19.68,
          "gap_pp": 7.76,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 27.44
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 15.16,
          "gap_pp": 4.4,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 19.56
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 60.45,
          "gap_pp": -12.55,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 47.9
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 39.55,
          "gap_pp": 12.55,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 52.1
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.45,
          "early": 1.45,
          "implied_closing_pct": 65.15,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 65.15,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
          "closing": 4.8,
          "early": 4.8,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 19.68,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
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        {
          "closing": 6.23,
          "early": 6.23,
          "implied_closing_pct": 15.16,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.57,
          "early": 1.57,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 2.4,
          "early": 2.4,
          "implied_closing_pct": 39.55,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 39.55,
          "kind": "ou_u"
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      "same_bookmaker": true,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-0",
        "prob": 12.5
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.66,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.248,
        "ev_under": 0.2504,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.2504,
        "over_prob": 47.9,
        "sort_key": 10375.36,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 52.1,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
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        "ev_yes": -0.1263,
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        "id": "btts",
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        "no_prob": 49.5,
        "sort_key": 10057.78,
        "tier": "best",
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        "yes_prob": 50.5
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1418,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.6515,
        "max_ev": 0.0106,
        "model_prob": 0.53,
        "side_label": "Legia Warszawa",
        "sort_key": 5208.48,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-0",
        "top_prob": 12.5
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 14562,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14562.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Motor Lublin",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
      "country_name": "Poland",
      "fixture_id": 1380685,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 339,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/339.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Legia Warszawa",
      "league_country": "Poland",
      "league_id": 106,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
      "league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-23 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "markets": {
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1868,
            "best_odd": 6.23,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0082,
            "ev": -0.0041,
            "implied_prob": 0.1516,
            "model_prob": 0.1956,
            "p_final": 0.1599
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          "draw": {
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0137,
            "ev": 0.0106,
            "implied_prob": 0.1968,
            "model_prob": 0.2744,
            "p_final": 0.2105
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4906,
            "best_odd": 1.45,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
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            "ev": -0.1418,
            "implied_prob": 0.6515,
            "model_prob": 0.53,
            "p_final": 0.5919
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.73,
          "edge_no": 0.0495,
          "edge_yes": -0.0495,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0642,
          "ev_yes": -0.1263,
          "implied_no": 0.4455,
          "implied_yes": 0.5545,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.4,
          "edge_over": -0.1186,
          "edge_under": 0.1186,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "ev_under": 0.2504,
          "implied_over": 0.5976,
          "implied_under": 0.4024,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.59,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2504,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.505,
          "draw_prob": 0.2744,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.53,
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          "total_xg": 2.59,
          "under_prob": 0.521,
          "xg_diff": 0.73
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "ev": -0.1418,
          "implied_prob": 0.6515,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.53,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Legia Warszawa"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "implied_prob": 0.4455,
          "model_prob": 0.495,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1186,
          "ev": 0.2504,
          "implied_prob": 0.4024,
          "model_prob": 0.521,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1380685,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2504,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1956,
        "draw": 0.2744,
        "home": 0.53
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Motor Lublin",
        "home": "Legia Warszawa"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.130458,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2504,
        "implied_prob": 0.4024,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.521,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "fixture_id": 1380685,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T20:29:06.296702+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}