Estadísticas / Fútbol / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa

Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa Statistics & Analysis

May 17, 2026 - 10:15
1 1.79
3 1.26
xG Accuracy: 50%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Piast Gliwice Raków Częstochowa ✖ Incorrect
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "6617d9bf5c304a5ae19580b4bf12f34cfdb10430ac9c9d85ccc8f1847323c061",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.26,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2558,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2596,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.91,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.85,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.06,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.79,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4847,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Piast Gliwice",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.26,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Piast Gliwice",
      "confidence": 48.5,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "Winner : Piast Gliwice",
        "edge": 0.1376,
        "edge_gap": 0.2255,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3474,
        "model_prob": 0.485,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 25.6,
          "draw": 25.9,
          "home": 48.5
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Piast Gliwice"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.76
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.76,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Piast Gliwice Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.88,
        "market_odds": 2.76,
        "model_odds": 2.06,
        "overround": 4.3,
        "prob_edge": 12.3,
        "value_pct": 34.0,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 9,
        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 71.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 8,
        "home_failed_to_score": 10,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 83.3,
        "no_prob": 38.9,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 61.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 61.1
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.26,
        "home_expected": 1.79,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 7.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 6.7
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Piast Gliwice or Draw",
            "prob": 74.5
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Piast Gliwice or Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
            "prob": 74.1
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
            "prob": 51.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Piast Gliwice or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 74.5
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 25.6,
        "draw_pct": 26.0,
        "home_pct": 48.5,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Piast Gliwice"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.05,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "over_prob": 58.8,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 58.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.05,
        "under_prob": 41.2
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 34.0,
        "implied_prob": 36.2,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Piast Gliwice Win",
        "model_prob": 48.5,
        "odds": 2.76
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Piast Gliwice",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 34.74,
          "gap_pp": 13.76,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 48.5
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 31.03,
          "gap_pp": -5.08,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 25.95
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 34.24,
          "gap_pp": -8.69,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 25.55
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 46.77,
          "gap_pp": 12.03,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 58.8
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 53.23,
          "gap_pp": -12.03,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 41.2
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.76,
          "early": 2.76,
          "implied_closing_pct": 34.74,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 34.74,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.09,
          "early": 3.09,
          "implied_closing_pct": 31.03,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 31.03,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.8,
          "early": 2.8,
          "implied_closing_pct": 34.24,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 34.24,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.06,
          "early": 2.06,
          "implied_closing_pct": 46.77,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 46.77,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.81,
          "early": 1.81,
          "implied_closing_pct": 53.23,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 53.23,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 13.8,
        "kind": "1x2_h"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.7
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.79,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.2054,
        "ev_under": -0.2419,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.2054,
        "over_prob": 58.8,
        "sort_key": 10334.86,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 41.2,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0943,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3474,
        "max_ev": 0.0943,
        "model_prob": 0.485,
        "side_label": "Piast Gliwice",
        "sort_key": 10084.87,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2026,
        "ev_yes": 0.0815,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0815,
        "no_prob": 38.9,
        "sort_key": 10073.35,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 61.1
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 812.1,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.7
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 3491,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3491.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
      "country_name": "Poland",
      "fixture_id": 1380677,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 349,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/349.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Piast Gliwice",
      "league_country": "Poland",
      "league_id": 106,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
      "league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3914,
            "best_odd": 2.8,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.034,
            "ev": -0.1365,
            "implied_prob": 0.3424,
            "model_prob": 0.2555,
            "p_final": 0.3084
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2772,
            "best_odd": 3.09,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0141,
            "ev": -0.0848,
            "implied_prob": 0.3103,
            "model_prob": 0.2595,
            "p_final": 0.2962
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3571,
            "best_odd": 2.76,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0491,
            "ev": 0.0943,
            "implied_prob": 0.3474,
            "model_prob": 0.485,
            "p_final": 0.3965
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.05,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.77,
          "edge_no": -0.0752,
          "edge_yes": 0.0752,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2026,
          "ev_yes": 0.0815,
          "implied_no": 0.4642,
          "implied_yes": 0.5358,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.05,
          "best_under_odd": 1.84,
          "edge_over": 0.1141,
          "edge_under": -0.1141,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.2054,
          "ev_under": -0.2419,
          "implied_over": 0.4739,
          "implied_under": 0.5261,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.05,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2054,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.611,
          "draw_prob": 0.2595,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.485,
          "over_prob": 0.588,
          "total_xg": 3.05,
          "under_prob": 0.412,
          "xg_diff": 0.53
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0491,
          "ev": 0.0943,
          "implied_prob": 0.3474,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.485,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Piast Gliwice"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0752,
          "ev": 0.0815,
          "implied_prob": 0.5358,
          "model_prob": 0.611,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1141,
          "ev": 0.2054,
          "implied_prob": 0.4739,
          "model_prob": 0.588,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1380677,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2054,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2555,
        "draw": 0.2595,
        "home": 0.485
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0815,
        "implied_prob": 0.5358,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.611,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0815,
          "implied_prob": 0.5358,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.611,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
        "home": "Piast Gliwice"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.150969,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2054,
        "implied_prob": 0.4739,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.588,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1380677,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T16:01:05.156343+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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Volver a Estadísticas
Ekstraklasa EkstraklasaClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P PTS
1 Lech Poznan 33 16 11 6 59
2 Jagiellonia 33 14 11 8 53
3 Gornik Zabrze 33 15 8 10 53
4 Raków Częstochowa 33 15 7 11 52
5 GKS Katowice 33 14 7 12 49
6 Zaglebie Lubin 33 13 9 11 48
7 Legia Warszawa 33 11 13 9 46
8 Wisla Plock 33 12 9 12 45
9 Radomiak Radom 33 11 11 11 44
10 Pogon Szczecin 33 13 5 15 44
11 Motor Lublin 33 10 13 10 43
12 Korona Kielce 33 11 9 13 42
13 Piast Gliwice 33 11 8 14 41
14 Cracovia Krakow 33 9 14 10 41
15 Widzew Łódź 33 11 6 16 39
16 Lechia Gdansk 33 12 7 14 38
17 Arka Gdynia 32 9 9 14 36
18 Nieciecza 32 7 7 18 28
# EQUIPO PJ GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 33 60 43 +17 59
2 Lechia Gdansk 33 60 62 -2 38
3 Jagiellonia 33 55 41 +14 53
4 GKS Katowice 33 50 44 +6 49
5 Radomiak Radom 33 50 47 +3 44
6 Raków Częstochowa 33 48 40 +8 52
7 Pogon Szczecin 33 46 48 -2 44
8 Motor Lublin 33 46 49 -3 43
9 Zaglebie Lubin 33 45 37 +8 48
10 Gornik Zabrze 33 44 36 +8 53
11 Piast Gliwice 33 41 44 -3 41
12 Korona Kielce 33 39 39 0 42
13 Widzew Łódź 33 39 40 -1 39
14 Legia Warszawa 33 38 37 +1 46
15 Cracovia Krakow 33 38 41 -3 41
16 Nieciecza 32 37 61 -24 28
17 Wisla Plock 33 32 36 -4 45
18 Arka Gdynia 32 32 55 -23 36
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 33 59.8 34.6 +25.2 59
2 Legia Warszawa 33 44.3 34.9 +9.4 46
3 Raków Częstochowa 33 52.1 43.1 +9.0 52
4 Piast Gliwice 33 45.4 40.2 +5.2 41
5 Lechia Gdansk 33 48.3 43.9 +4.4 38
6 Pogon Szczecin 33 52.4 48.2 +4.2 44
7 Gornik Zabrze 33 41.5 39.4 +2.1 53
8 Cracovia Krakow 33 38.1 36.2 +1.9 41
9 Widzew Łódź 33 38.2 37.2 +1.0 39
10 Korona Kielce 33 49.6 49.8 -0.2 42
11 Radomiak Radom 33 42.0 43.8 -1.8 44
12 Wisla Plock 33 41.6 44.2 -2.6 45
13 GKS Katowice 33 41.1 45.5 -4.4 49
14 Jagiellonia 33 42.4 48.3 -5.9 53
15 Zaglebie Lubin 33 33.5 42.8 -9.3 48
16 Nieciecza 32 41.1 53.0 -11.9 28
17 Motor Lublin 33 39.5 52.2 -12.7 43
18 Arka Gdynia 32 34.1 47.9 -13.8 36