Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.18,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2519,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2697,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.97,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.71,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.09,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.69,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4784,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Legia Warszawa",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Lechia Gdansk",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Legia Warszawa"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.18,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Lechia Gdansk",
      "confidence": 47.9,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "Winner : Lechia Gdansk",
        "edge": 0.1536,
        "edge_gap": 0.2089,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3249,
        "model_prob": 0.4785,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 25.2,
          "draw": 27.0,
          "home": 47.9
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Lechia Gdansk"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.92
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.92,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Lechia Gdansk Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 3.08,
        "market_odds": 2.92,
        "model_odds": 2.09,
        "overround": 5.4,
        "prob_edge": 13.6,
        "value_pct": 39.7,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 10,
        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 69.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 81.5,
        "no_prob": 42.0,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 58.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 58.0
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.18,
        "home_expected": 1.69,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 11.3
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 8.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
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            "label": "Lechia Gdansk or Draw",
            "prob": 74.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Lechia Gdansk or Legia Warszawa",
            "prob": 73.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Legia Warszawa",
            "prob": 52.2
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Lechia Gdansk or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 74.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 25.2,
        "draw_pct": 27.0,
        "home_pct": 47.8,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Lechia Gdansk"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.87,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.8,
        "over_prob": 54.7,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 54.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 2.87,
        "under_prob": 45.3
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 39.7,
        "implied_prob": 34.2,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Lechia Gdansk Win",
        "model_prob": 47.8,
        "odds": 2.92
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Legia Warszawa",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Lechia Gdansk",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 32.49,
          "gap_pp": 15.36,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 47.85
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 27.98,
          "gap_pp": -1.03,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 26.96
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 39.53,
          "gap_pp": -14.34,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 25.19
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 53.52,
          "gap_pp": 1.18,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 54.7
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 46.48,
          "gap_pp": -1.18,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 45.3
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.92,
          "early": 2.92,
          "implied_closing_pct": 32.49,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 32.49,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
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          "kind": "1x2_d"
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        {
          "closing": 2.4,
          "early": 2.4,
          "implied_closing_pct": 39.53,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.78,
          "early": 1.78,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 2.05,
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          "kind": "ou_u"
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      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
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    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.69,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3249,
        "max_ev": 0.104,
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        "side_label": "Lechia Gdansk",
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        "tier": "best"
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      {
        "decision": "lean",
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        "ev_under": -0.0215,
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        "sort_key": 813.9,
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        "top_prob": 11.3
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 339,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/339.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Legia Warszawa",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
      "country_name": "Poland",
      "fixture_id": 1380675,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 343,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/343.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Lechia Gdansk",
      "league_country": "Poland",
      "league_id": 106,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
      "league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3532,
            "best_odd": 2.4,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.1729,
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            "p_final": 0.3446
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.003,
            "ev": -0.0616,
            "implied_prob": 0.2798,
            "model_prob": 0.2696,
            "p_final": 0.2768
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3463,
            "best_odd": 2.92,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
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            "ev": 0.104,
            "implied_prob": 0.3249,
            "model_prob": 0.4785,
            "p_final": 0.3781
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
          "edge_no": 0.0032,
          "edge_yes": -0.0032,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.034,
          "ev_yes": -0.0604,
          "implied_no": 0.4168,
          "implied_yes": 0.5832,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.78,
          "best_under_odd": 2.16,
          "edge_over": 0.0045,
          "edge_under": -0.0045,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "ev_under": -0.0215,
          "implied_over": 0.5425,
          "implied_under": 0.4575,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.87,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.104,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "B",
        "stake_factor": 0.5
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          "total_xg": 2.87,
          "under_prob": 0.453,
          "xg_diff": 0.51
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        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "ev": 0.104,
          "implied_prob": 0.3249,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4785,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Lechia Gdansk"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0032,
          "ev": -0.034,
          "implied_prob": 0.4168,
          "model_prob": 0.42,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
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          "decision": "lean",
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          "ev": -0.0215,
          "implied_prob": 0.4575,
          "model_prob": 0.453,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
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      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
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        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.104,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.5,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2519,
        "draw": 0.2696,
        "home": 0.4785
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Legia Warszawa",
        "home": "Lechia Gdansk"
      },
      "top_pick": {
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        "model_prob": 0.4785,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "Lechia Gdansk",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
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  "fixture_id": 1380675,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T16:00:51.803885+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}