Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.14,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2692,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2865,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.72,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.49,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.25,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.52,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4444,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Widzew \u0141\u00f3d\u017a",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Widzew \u0141\u00f3d\u017a"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.14,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Korona Kielce",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.061,
        "edge_gap": 0.1579,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3836,
        "model_prob": 0.4445,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 26.9,
          "draw": 28.7,
          "home": 44.5
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.51
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.51,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Korona Kielce Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.61,
        "market_odds": 2.51,
        "model_odds": 2.25,
        "overround": 3.9,
        "prob_edge": 4.6,
        "value_pct": 11.6,
        "value_rating": "value_bet"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
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        "away_clean_sheet": 10,
        "away_failed_to_score": 9,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 68.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 8,
        "home_failed_to_score": 9,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 78.1,
        "no_prob": 45.3,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.7
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      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 1.52,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 12.1
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.6
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.2
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
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            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 8.1
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
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            "label": "Korona Kielce or Draw",
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          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Korona Kielce or Widzew \u0141\u00f3d\u017a",
            "prob": 71.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Widzew \u0141\u00f3d\u017a",
            "prob": 55.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Korona Kielce or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 73.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 26.9,
        "draw_pct": 28.6,
        "home_pct": 44.4,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Korona Kielce"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.66,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 49.6,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
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        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.66,
        "under_prob": 50.3
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "edge": 11.6,
        "implied_prob": 39.8,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Korona Kielce Win",
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        "odds": 2.51
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Widzew \u0141\u00f3d\u017a",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Korona Kielce",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "kind": "1x2_h",
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 32.2,
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          "kind": "1x2_d",
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 29.44,
          "gap_pp": -2.56,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 26.89
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 38.77,
          "gap_pp": 10.83,
          "kind": "ou_o",
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        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 61.23,
          "gap_pp": -10.93,
          "kind": "ou_u",
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      "movement": [
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      "most_likely": {
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    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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        "ev_under": -0.1298,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "tier": "best",
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        "value_side": "over"
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        "id": "1x2",
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        "tier": "lean"
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    ],
    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 6962,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6962.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Widzew \u0141\u00f3d\u017a",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
      "country_name": "Poland",
      "fixture_id": 1380674,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 346,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/346.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Korona Kielce",
      "league_country": "Poland",
      "league_id": 106,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
      "league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 6.5
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      "markets": {
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
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            "best_odd": 3.27,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "draw": {
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              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.0151,
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          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4089,
            "best_odd": 2.51,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": 0.0253,
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            "model_prob": 0.4445,
            "p_final": 0.4085
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 2.05,
          "edge_no": -0.0799,
          "edge_yes": 0.0799,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1348,
          "ev_yes": 0.1214,
          "implied_no": 0.5329,
          "implied_yes": 0.4671,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 1.73,
          "edge_over": 0.0956,
          "edge_under": -0.0966,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "ev_under": -0.1298,
          "implied_over": 0.4004,
          "implied_under": 0.5996,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.66,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2301,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
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          "draw_prob": 0.2866,
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          "total_xg": 2.66,
          "under_prob": 0.503,
          "xg_diff": 0.38
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        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Korona Kielce"
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        "btts": {
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          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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        "code": "clear_edge",
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        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
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          "not_dominant": false,
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Widzew \u0141\u00f3d\u017a",
        "home": "Korona Kielce"
      },
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        "implied_prob": 0.4004,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.496,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 3
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  "fixture_id": 1380674,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T16:00:59.730046+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}