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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 GKS Katowice Dibujar ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "895118cdec643f817d17c3d2ba309087d298e65bc84a83e2e9fc16bf1be79fb1",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.09,
"away_win_prob": 0.1817,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2337,
"fair_odds_away": 5.5,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.28,
"fair_odds_home": 1.71,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.06,
"home_win_prob": 0.5846,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : GKS Katowice",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.09,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "GKS Katowice",
"confidence": 58.5,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : GKS Katowice",
"edge": 0.2173,
"edge_gap": 0.3511,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3673,
"model_prob": 0.5846,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 18.2,
"draw": 23.4,
"home": 58.5
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "GKS Katowice"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.58
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.58,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "GKS Katowice Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.72,
"market_odds": 2.58,
"model_odds": 1.71,
"overround": 5.5,
"prob_edge": 19.7,
"value_pct": 50.9,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 32,
"away_score_rate": 66.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 32,
"home_score_rate": 87.3,
"no_prob": 40.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 59.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 59.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.09,
"home_expected": 2.06,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "GKS Katowice or Draw",
"prob": 81.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "GKS Katowice or Jagiellonia",
"prob": 76.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Jagiellonia",
"prob": 41.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "GKS Katowice or Draw",
"pick_prob": 81.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 18.2,
"draw_pct": 23.4,
"home_pct": 58.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "GKS Katowice"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.15,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 61.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 61.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.15,
"under_prob": 39.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 50.9,
"implied_prob": 38.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "GKS Katowice Win",
"model_prob": 58.5,
"odds": 2.58
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Jagiellonia",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "GKS Katowice",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.73,
"gap_pp": 21.73,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 58.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.25,
"gap_pp": -2.89,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.36
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.02,
"gap_pp": -18.84,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 18.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.9,
"gap_pp": 0.1,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 61.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.1,
"gap_pp": -0.1,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 39.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.58,
"early": 2.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.73,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.73,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.61,
"early": 3.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.25,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.56,
"early": 2.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.02,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.56,
"early": 1.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.9,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.43,
"early": 2.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 21.7,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
}
},
"home_xg": 2.06,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1177,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3673,
"max_ev": 0.1177,
"model_prob": 0.5846,
"side_label": "GKS Katowice",
"sort_key": 10255.93,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.073,
"ev_yes": -0.112,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.073,
"no_prob": 40.8,
"sort_key": 10065.7,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 59.2
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.024,
"ev_under": -0.0445,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.024,
"over_prob": 61.0,
"sort_key": 1794.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 39.0,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.9
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 336,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/336.webp",
"away_team_name": "Jagiellonia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1380673,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 3484,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3484.webp",
"home_team_name": "GKS Katowice",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_id": 106,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
"league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-16 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3228,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0608,
"ev": -0.208,
"implied_prob": 0.3702,
"model_prob": 0.1818,
"p_final": 0.3094
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.287,
"best_odd": 3.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.0823,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"model_prob": 0.2336,
"p_final": 0.2542
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3033,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0659,
"ev": 0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.3673,
"model_prob": 0.5846,
"p_final": 0.4332
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"edge_no": 0.0377,
"edge_yes": -0.0377,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.073,
"ev_yes": -0.112,
"implied_no": 0.3703,
"implied_yes": 0.6297,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.45,
"edge_over": 0.0107,
"edge_under": -0.0107,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.024,
"ev_under": -0.0445,
"implied_over": 0.5993,
"implied_under": 0.4007,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.15,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1177,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.592,
"draw_prob": 0.2336,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5846,
"over_prob": 0.61,
"total_xg": 3.15,
"under_prob": 0.39,
"xg_diff": 0.97
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0659,
"ev": 0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.3673,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "GKS Katowice"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0377,
"ev": 0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.3703,
"model_prob": 0.408,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.024,
"implied_prob": 0.5993,
"model_prob": 0.61,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1380673,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1177,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1818,
"draw": 0.2336,
"home": 0.5846
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Jagiellonia",
"home": "GKS Katowice"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.082569,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.3673,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5846,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "GKS Katowice",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1380673,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T16:00:50.210321+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Ekstraklasa — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 33 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 59 |
| 2 | Jagiellonia | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 53 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 53 |
| 4 | Raków Częstochowa | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 52 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 49 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 48 |
| 7 | Legia Warszawa | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 46 |
| 8 | Wisla Plock | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 45 |
| 9 | Radomiak Radom | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 44 |
| 10 | Pogon Szczecin | 33 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 44 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 43 |
| 12 | Korona Kielce | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 13 | Piast Gliwice | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 41 |
| 14 | Cracovia Krakow | 33 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 41 |
| 15 | Widzew Łódź | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 39 |
| 16 | Lechia Gdansk | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 38 |
| 17 | Arka Gdynia | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 |
| 18 | Nieciecza | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 28 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 33 | 60 | 43 | +17 | 59 |
| 2 | Lechia Gdansk | 33 | 60 | 62 | -2 | 38 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia | 33 | 55 | 41 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | GKS Katowice | 33 | 50 | 44 | +6 | 49 |
| 5 | Radomiak Radom | 33 | 50 | 47 | +3 | 44 |
| 6 | Raków Częstochowa | 33 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 52 |
| 7 | Pogon Szczecin | 33 | 46 | 48 | -2 | 44 |
| 8 | Motor Lublin | 33 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 43 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 33 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 48 |
| 10 | Gornik Zabrze | 33 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 53 |
| 11 | Piast Gliwice | 33 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 12 | Korona Kielce | 33 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 33 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 39 |
| 14 | Legia Warszawa | 33 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 46 |
| 15 | Cracovia Krakow | 33 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 41 |
| 16 | Nieciecza | 32 | 37 | 61 | -24 | 28 |
| 17 | Wisla Plock | 33 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 45 |
| 18 | Arka Gdynia | 32 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 36 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 33 | 59.8 | 34.6 | +25.2 | 59 |
| 2 | Legia Warszawa | 33 | 44.3 | 34.9 | +9.4 | 46 |
| 3 | Raków Częstochowa | 33 | 52.1 | 43.1 | +9.0 | 52 |
| 4 | Piast Gliwice | 33 | 45.4 | 40.2 | +5.2 | 41 |
| 5 | Lechia Gdansk | 33 | 48.3 | 43.9 | +4.4 | 38 |
| 6 | Pogon Szczecin | 33 | 52.4 | 48.2 | +4.2 | 44 |
| 7 | Gornik Zabrze | 33 | 41.5 | 39.4 | +2.1 | 53 |
| 8 | Cracovia Krakow | 33 | 38.1 | 36.2 | +1.9 | 41 |
| 9 | Widzew Łódź | 33 | 38.2 | 37.2 | +1.0 | 39 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 33 | 49.6 | 49.8 | -0.2 | 42 |
| 11 | Radomiak Radom | 33 | 42.0 | 43.8 | -1.8 | 44 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 33 | 41.6 | 44.2 | -2.6 | 45 |
| 13 | GKS Katowice | 33 | 41.1 | 45.5 | -4.4 | 49 |
| 14 | Jagiellonia | 33 | 42.4 | 48.3 | -5.9 | 53 |
| 15 | Zaglebie Lubin | 33 | 33.5 | 42.8 | -9.3 | 48 |
| 16 | Nieciecza | 32 | 41.1 | 53.0 | -11.9 | 28 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 33 | 39.5 | 52.2 | -12.7 | 43 |
| 18 | Arka Gdynia | 32 | 34.1 | 47.9 | -13.8 | 36 |