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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Diosgyori VTK Paks ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "916d62a37eaa839a6d629a325ff496b4381157881e3b5d4cc6439860700ad5ae",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.01,
"away_win_prob": 0.2618,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3067,
"fair_odds_away": 3.82,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.26,
"fair_odds_home": 2.32,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.4315,
"prediction_confidence": "low"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Paks",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Paks"
},
"away_xg": 1.01,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Diosgyori VTK",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2565,
"edge_gap": 0.1243,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.1748,
"model_prob": 0.4312,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 26.2,
"draw": 30.7,
"home": 43.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 5.29
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 5.29,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Diosgyori VTK Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 5.72,
"market_odds": 5.29,
"model_odds": 2.32,
"overround": 8.2,
"prob_edge": 24.2,
"value_pct": 128.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 32,
"away_score_rate": 63.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 32,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 51.1,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 51.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 48.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.01,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Diosgyori VTK or Draw",
"prob": 73.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Diosgyori VTK or Paks",
"prob": 69.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Paks",
"prob": 56.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Diosgyori VTK or Draw",
"pick_prob": 73.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.2,
"draw_pct": 30.7,
"home_pct": 43.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Diosgyori VTK"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.37,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 42.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.37,
"under_prob": 57.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 128.0,
"implied_prob": 18.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Diosgyori VTK Win",
"model_prob": 43.1,
"odds": 5.29
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Paks",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Diosgyori VTK",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 17.48,
"gap_pp": 25.65,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 43.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.05,
"gap_pp": 10.63,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 30.69
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.47,
"gap_pp": -36.28,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 26.19
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 67.38,
"gap_pp": -25.18,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 42.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.62,
"gap_pp": 25.18,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 57.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 5.29,
"early": 5.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 17.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 17.48,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.61,
"early": 4.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.05,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.48,
"early": 1.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.47,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.38,
"early": 1.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 67.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 67.38,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.85,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.62,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 25.6,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.8
}
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4134,
"ev_under": 0.9363,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.9363,
"over_prob": 42.2,
"sort_key": 10992.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 57.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4819,
"ev_yes": -0.2812,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4819,
"no_prob": 51.1,
"sort_key": 10433.71,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 48.9
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0915,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1748,
"max_ev": 0.0915,
"model_prob": 0.4312,
"side_label": "Diosgyori VTK",
"sort_key": 10082.35,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.8
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 2390,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2390.webp",
"away_team_name": "Paks",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hu.svg",
"country_name": "Hungary",
"fixture_id": 1380367,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 2393,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2393.webp",
"home_team_name": "Diosgyori VTK",
"league_country": "Hungary",
"league_id": 271,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/271.webp",
"league_name": "NB I",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-16 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.1088,
"ev": -0.2365,
"implied_prob": 0.6247,
"model_prob": 0.2619,
"p_final": 0.5158
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"best_odd": 4.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": 0.0069,
"implied_prob": 0.2005,
"model_prob": 0.3069,
"p_final": 0.2184
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1231,
"best_odd": 5.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0316,
"ev": 0.0915,
"implied_prob": 0.1748,
"model_prob": 0.4312,
"p_final": 0.2063
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.47,
"edge_no": 0.1582,
"edge_yes": -0.1582,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4819,
"ev_yes": -0.2812,
"implied_no": 0.3528,
"implied_yes": 0.6472,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.39,
"best_under_odd": 3.35,
"edge_over": -0.2706,
"edge_under": 0.2706,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4134,
"ev_under": 0.9363,
"implied_over": 0.6926,
"implied_under": 0.3074,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.37,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.9363,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.489,
"draw_prob": 0.3069,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4312,
"over_prob": 0.422,
"total_xg": 2.37,
"under_prob": 0.578,
"xg_diff": 0.35
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0316,
"ev": 0.0915,
"implied_prob": 0.1748,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4312,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Diosgyori VTK"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1582,
"ev": 0.4819,
"implied_prob": 0.3528,
"model_prob": 0.511,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2706,
"ev": 0.9363,
"implied_prob": 0.3074,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1380367,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.9363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2619,
"draw": 0.3069,
"home": 0.4312
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4819,
"implied_prob": 0.3528,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.511,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4819,
"implied_prob": 0.3528,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.511,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Paks",
"home": "Diosgyori VTK"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.333368,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9363,
"implied_prob": 0.3074,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1380367,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T14:55:52.957695+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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NB I — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyori ETO FC | 32 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 66 |
| 2 | Ferencvarosi TC | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 65 |
| 3 | Paks | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 50 |
| 4 | Debreceni VSC | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 50 |
| 5 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Puskas Academy | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 45 |
| 7 | Ujpest | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 40 |
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 40 |
| 9 | Nyiregyhaza | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 39 |
| 10 | MTK Budapest | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 11 | Diosgyori VTK | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 28 |
| 12 | Kazincbarcikai | 32 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyori ETO FC | 32 | 64 | 30 | +34 | 66 |
| 2 | Ferencvarosi TC | 32 | 64 | 31 | +33 | 65 |
| 3 | Paks | 32 | 60 | 45 | +15 | 50 |
| 4 | MTK Budapest | 32 | 53 | 60 | -7 | 37 |
| 5 | Debreceni VSC | 32 | 49 | 40 | +9 | 50 |
| 6 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 32 | 49 | 40 | +9 | 48 |
| 7 | Ujpest | 32 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 40 |
| 8 | Nyiregyhaza | 32 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 39 |
| 9 | Puskas Academy | 32 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 45 |
| 10 | Diosgyori VTK | 32 | 38 | 62 | -24 | 28 |
| 11 | Kisvarda FC | 32 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 40 |
| 12 | Kazincbarcikai | 32 | 29 | 68 | -39 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferencvarosi TC | 32 | 20.8 | 11.2 | +9.6 | 65 |
| 2 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 32 | 15.9 | 15.2 | +0.7 | 48 |
| 3 | Ujpest | 32 | 15.3 | 14.8 | +0.5 | 40 |
| 4 | Gyori ETO FC | 32 | 2.3 | 2.2 | +0.1 | 66 |
| 5 | Paks | 32 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 0.0 | 50 |
| 6 | Puskas Academy | 32 | 14.3 | 15.0 | -0.7 | 45 |
| 7 | MTK Budapest | 32 | 18.3 | 19.1 | -0.8 | 37 |
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 32 | 13.9 | 15.8 | -1.9 | 40 |
| 9 | Debreceni VSC | 32 | 15.3 | 18.8 | -3.5 | 50 |
| 10 | Diosgyori VTK | 32 | 14.2 | 18.1 | -3.9 | 28 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 32 | — | — | — | 39 |
| 12 | Kazincbarcikai | 32 | — | — | — | 21 |