Brighton vs Manchester United Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.26,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2512,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.386,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.614,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.257,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.98,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.89,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.03,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.82,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4918,
      "over_25_prob": 0.595,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.406
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Brighton or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "30%",
      "percent_draw": "35%",
      "percent_home": "35%",
      "winner_name": "Brighton"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.26,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Brighton",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0215,
        "edge_gap": 0.2353,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5137,
        "model_prob": 0.4921,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 25.1,
          "draw": 25.7,
          "home": 49.2
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.89
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.89,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Brighton Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.95,
        "market_odds": 1.89,
        "model_odds": 2.03,
        "overround": 3.0,
        "prob_edge": -3.6,
        "value_pct": -6.9,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 7,
        "away_failed_to_score": 4,
        "away_played": 37,
        "away_score_rate": 71.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 10,
        "home_failed_to_score": 8,
        "home_played": 37,
        "home_score_rate": 83.8,
        "no_prob": 38.6,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 61.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 61.4
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.26,
        "home_expected": 1.82,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 7.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
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          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Brighton or Draw",
            "prob": 74.9
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Brighton or Manchester United",
            "prob": 74.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Manchester United",
            "prob": 50.8
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Brighton or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 74.9
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 25.1,
        "draw_pct": 25.7,
        "home_pct": 49.2,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Brighton"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.08,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.8,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "over_prob": 59.5,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 59.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.08,
        "under_prob": 40.6
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 7.2,
        "implied_prob": 24.0,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 25.7,
        "odds": 4.17
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Manchester United",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Brighton",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 51.37,
          "gap_pp": -2.15,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 49.21
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 23.28,
          "gap_pp": 2.4,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 25.68
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 25.35,
          "gap_pp": -0.25,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 25.1
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 63.88,
          "gap_pp": -4.38,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 59.5
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 36.12,
          "gap_pp": 4.48,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 40.6
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.89,
          "early": 1.89,
          "implied_closing_pct": 51.37,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 51.37,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.17,
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          "kind": "1x2_d"
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        {
          "closing": 3.83,
          "early": 3.83,
          "implied_closing_pct": 25.35,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 25.35,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.51,
          "early": 1.51,
          "implied_closing_pct": 63.88,
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          "implied_early_pct": 63.88,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.67,
          "early": 2.67,
          "implied_closing_pct": 36.12,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 36.12,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 4.5,
        "kind": "ou_u"
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    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.5
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.82,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_over": -0.1016,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -10.2,
          "text": "-10.2%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.1165,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 11.7,
          "text": "+11.7%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.1165,
        "over_prob": 59.5,
        "sort_key": 10254.85,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 40.6,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.0615,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 6.2,
          "text": "+6.2%"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.079,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -7.9,
          "text": "-7.9%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
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        "no_prob": 38.6,
        "sort_key": 10055.35,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 61.4
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0528,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -5.3,
          "text": "-5.3%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
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        "max_ev": -0.0098,
        "max_ev_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -1.0,
          "text": "-1.0%"
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        "model_prob": 0.4921,
        "side_label": "Brighton",
        "sort_key": 1797.55,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
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      {
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        "id": "correct_score",
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        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.5
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 33,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/33.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Manchester United",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
      "country_name": "England",
      "fixture_id": 1379339,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 51,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/51.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Brighton",
      "league_country": "England",
      "league_id": 39,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/39.webp",
      "league_name": "Premier League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-24 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2989,
            "best_odd": 3.83,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0007,
            "ev": -0.032,
            "implied_prob": 0.2535,
            "model_prob": 0.251,
            "p_final": 0.2528
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1928,
            "best_odd": 4.17,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0046,
            "ev": -0.0098,
            "implied_prob": 0.2328,
            "model_prob": 0.2568,
            "p_final": 0.2375
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5806,
            "best_odd": 1.89,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0125,
            "ev": -0.0528,
            "implied_prob": 0.5137,
            "model_prob": 0.4921,
            "p_final": 0.5012
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.75,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_no": 0.0254,
          "edge_yes": -0.0254,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0615,
          "ev_yes": -0.079,
          "implied_no": 0.3606,
          "implied_yes": 0.6394,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.51,
          "best_under_odd": 2.75,
          "edge_over": -0.046,
          "edge_under": 0.047,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1016,
          "ev_under": 0.1165,
          "implied_over": 0.641,
          "implied_under": 0.359,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.08,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1165,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.614,
          "draw_prob": 0.2568,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4921,
          "over_prob": 0.595,
          "total_xg": 3.08,
          "under_prob": 0.406,
          "xg_diff": 0.56
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0125,
          "ev": -0.0528,
          "implied_prob": 0.5137,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.4921,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Brighton"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0254,
          "ev": 0.0615,
          "implied_prob": 0.3606,
          "model_prob": 0.386,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.047,
          "ev": 0.1165,
          "implied_prob": 0.359,
          "model_prob": 0.406,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1379339,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1165,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.251,
        "draw": 0.2568,
        "home": 0.4921
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Manchester United",
        "home": "Brighton"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.044934,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1165,
        "implied_prob": 0.359,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.406,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1379339,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-24T18:27:12.432729+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}