Leeds United vs Burnley Statistics & Analysis

May 01, 2026 - 19:00

3 2.47

1 0.73

xG Accuracy: 80%

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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
1X2 Leeds United Leeds United ✔ Correcto
Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 3-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-1 3-1 ✔ Correcto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 14:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2760239

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Leeds United win · Leeds United 3–1 Burnley

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Informe IA del partido

Resumen del partido IA

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Leeds United vs Burnley
Kickoff: 2026-05-02 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 74.6% · Draw 17.4% · Away 8.0%
xG (showing): Leeds United 2.47 — Burnley 0.73 (total xG ≈ 3.2)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 62.0% · Implied: 57.4% · Probability edge: +4.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 48.4% · No 51.6%
Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Recomendación histórica

Decisión histórica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Resultado: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Factores de riesgo considerados antes del inicio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Última actualización

May 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Clasificación

#	EQUIPO	PJ	G	E	P	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	54
8	Brighton & Hove Albion	38	14	11	13	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	52
12	Newcastle United	38	14	7	17	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	49
14	Leeds United	38	11	14	13	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	41
18	West Ham United	38	10	9	19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	20

#	EQUIPO	PJ	GF	GC	+/-	Pts
1	Manchester City	38	77	35	+42	78
2	Arsenal	38	71	27	+44	85
3	Manchester United	38	69	50	+19	71
4	Liverpool	38	63	53	+10	60
5	Chelsea	38	58	52	+6	52
6	Bournemouth	38	58	54	+4	57
7	Aston Villa	38	56	49	+7	65
8	Brentford	38	55	52	+3	53
9	Newcastle United	38	53	55	-2	49
10	Brighton & Hove Albion	38	52	46	+6	53
11	Leeds United	38	49	56	-7	47
12	Nottingham Forest	38	48	51	-3	44
13	Tottenham	38	48	57	-9	41
14	Everton	38	47	50	-3	49
15	Fulham	38	47	51	-4	52
16	West Ham United	38	46	65	-19	39
17	Sunderland	38	42	48	-6	54
18	Crystal Palace	38	41	51	-10	45
19	Burnley	38	38	75	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	27	68	-41	20

#	EQUIPO	PJ	xG	xGC	+/-	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	64.5	28.8	+35.7	85
2	Manchester City	38	68.8	42.6	+26.2	78
3	Manchester United	38	64.7	48.5	+16.2	71
4	Liverpool	38	60.1	46.9	+13.2	60
5	Chelsea	38	63.5	51.9	+11.6	52
6	Brighton & Hove Albion	38	57.4	49.9	+7.5	53
7	Crystal Palace	38	57.6	50.2	+7.4	45
8	Bournemouth	38	62.5	56.8	+5.7	57
9	Newcastle United	38	57.2	51.5	+5.7	49
10	Brentford	38	59.3	54.3	+5.0	53
11	Leeds United	38	54.4	55.1	-0.7	47
12	Fulham	38	47.9	52.2	-4.3	52
13	Aston Villa	38	47.6	54.3	-6.7	65
14	Nottingham Forest	38	46.3	56.3	-10.0	44
15	Everton	38	45.9	55.9	-10.0	49
16	Tottenham	38	40.8	52.2	-11.4	41
17	West Ham United	38	45.1	56.8	-11.7	39
18	Sunderland	38	39.1	53.4	-14.3	54
19	Wolves	38	35.5	58.1	-22.6	20
20	Burnley	38	32.3	74.9	-42.6	22