Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie A / Torino vs Juventus

Torino vs Juventus Statistics & Analysis

May 24, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.07
2 1.91
xG Accuracy: 76%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Juventus Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "a321146a5a2fd55266ce2d44f6643ca428860ce0f371441c5c7cda5eaa83c022",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.91,
      "away_win_prob": 0.5561,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.427,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.573,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2483,
      "fair_odds_away": 1.8,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.03,
      "fair_odds_home": 5.11,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.07,
      "home_win_prob": 0.1956,
      "over_25_prob": 0.572,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.428
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Juventus",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Juventus"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.91,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Juventus",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0699,
        "edge_gap": 0.3076,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6258,
        "model_prob": 0.5559,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 55.6,
          "draw": 24.8,
          "home": 19.6
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.54
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.54,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Juventus Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.6,
        "market_odds": 1.54,
        "model_odds": 1.8,
        "overround": 3.8,
        "prob_edge": -9.4,
        "value_pct": -14.4,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 16,
        "away_failed_to_score": 8,
        "away_played": 37,
        "away_score_rate": 85.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 12,
        "home_failed_to_score": 11,
        "home_played": 37,
        "home_score_rate": 65.7,
        "no_prob": 42.7,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 57.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 57.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.91,
        "home_expected": 1.07,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.4
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.9
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 9.3
          },
          {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-3",
            "prob": 6.3
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Torino or Draw",
            "prob": 44.4
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Torino or Juventus",
            "prob": 75.2
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Juventus",
            "prob": 80.4
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Juventus",
        "pick_prob": 80.4
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 55.6,
        "draw_pct": 24.8,
        "home_pct": 19.6,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Juventus"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.98,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "over_prob": 57.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 57.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.98,
        "under_prob": 42.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 25.4,
        "implied_prob": 15.6,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Torino Win",
        "model_prob": 19.6,
        "odds": 6.4
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Juventus",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Torino",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 15.06,
          "gap_pp": 4.52,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 19.58
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 22.36,
          "gap_pp": 2.47,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 24.83
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 62.58,
          "gap_pp": -6.99,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 55.59
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
          "gap_pp": 2.56,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 57.2
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 45.36,
          "gap_pp": -2.56,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 42.8
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 6.4,
          "early": 6.4,
          "implied_closing_pct": 15.06,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 15.06,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.31,
          "early": 4.31,
          "implied_closing_pct": 22.36,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 22.36,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.54,
          "early": 1.54,
          "implied_closing_pct": 62.58,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 62.58,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.76,
          "early": 1.76,
          "implied_closing_pct": 54.64,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 54.64,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.12,
          "early": 2.12,
          "implied_closing_pct": 45.36,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 45.36,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 4.5,
        "kind": "1x2_h"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.4
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.07,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.1673,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -16.7,
          "text": "-16.7%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.1002,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 10.0,
          "text": "+10.0%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1002,
        "no_prob": 42.7,
        "sort_key": 10240.18,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 57.3
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0353,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 3.5,
          "text": "+3.5%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.0798,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -8.0,
          "text": "-8.0%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0353,
        "over_prob": 57.2,
        "sort_key": 10031.77,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 42.8,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0941,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -9.4,
          "text": "-9.4%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.6258,
        "max_ev": 0.0177,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 1.8,
          "text": "+1.8%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.5559,
        "side_label": "Juventus",
        "sort_key": 5214.16,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 811.2,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.4
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 496,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/496.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Juventus",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
      "country_name": "Italy",
      "fixture_id": 1378242,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 503,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/503.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Torino",
      "league_country": "Italy",
      "league_id": 135,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/135.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie A",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-24 13:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 8.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.5371,
            "best_odd": 1.54,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0375,
            "ev": -0.0941,
            "implied_prob": 0.6258,
            "model_prob": 0.5559,
            "p_final": 0.5883
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1926,
            "best_odd": 4.31,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0048,
            "ev": -0.0158,
            "implied_prob": 0.2236,
            "model_prob": 0.2483,
            "p_final": 0.2284
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1864,
            "best_odd": 6.4,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0084,
            "ev": 0.0177,
            "implied_prob": 0.1506,
            "model_prob": 0.1958,
            "p_final": 0.159
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.95,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.92,
          "edge_no": -0.0656,
          "edge_yes": 0.0656,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1673,
          "ev_yes": 0.1002,
          "implied_no": 0.4926,
          "implied_yes": 0.5074,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.81,
          "best_under_odd": 2.15,
          "edge_over": 0.0292,
          "edge_under": -0.0292,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0353,
          "ev_under": -0.0798,
          "implied_over": 0.5428,
          "implied_under": 0.4572,
          "n_bookmakers": 12,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.98,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1002,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.573,
          "draw_prob": 0.2483,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5559,
          "over_prob": 0.572,
          "total_xg": 2.98,
          "under_prob": 0.428,
          "xg_diff": 0.84
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0375,
          "ev": -0.0941,
          "implied_prob": 0.6258,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.5559,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Juventus"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0656,
          "ev": 0.1002,
          "implied_prob": 0.5074,
          "model_prob": 0.573,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0292,
          "ev": 0.0353,
          "implied_prob": 0.5428,
          "model_prob": 0.572,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1378242,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1002,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.5559,
        "draw": 0.2483,
        "home": 0.1958
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Juventus",
        "home": "Torino"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.057415,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1002,
        "implied_prob": 0.5074,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.573,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1378242,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-24T18:19:40.455438+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics
Serie A Serie AStandings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Inter 38 27 6 5 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 34
19 Hellas Verona 38 3 12 23 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Inter 38 89 35 +54 87
2 Como 38 65 29 +36 71
3 Juventus 38 61 34 +27 69
4 AS Roma 38 59 31 +28 73
5 Napoli 38 58 36 +22 76
6 AC Milan 38 53 35 +18 70
7 Atalanta 38 51 36 +15 59
8 Bologna 38 49 46 +3 56
9 Sassuolo 38 46 50 -4 49
10 Udinese 38 45 48 -3 50
11 Torino 38 44 63 -19 45
12 Lazio 38 41 40 +1 54
13 Fiorentina 38 41 50 -9 42
14 Genoa 38 41 51 -10 41
15 Cagliari 38 40 53 -13 43
16 Cremonese 38 32 57 -25 34
17 Parma 38 28 46 -18 45
18 Lecce 38 28 50 -22 38
19 Pisa 38 26 71 -45 18
20 Hellas Verona 38 25 61 -36 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Inter 38 71.5 34.8 +36.7 87
2 Juventus 38 65.6 32.0 +33.6 69
3 Como 38 62.2 33.8 +28.4 71
4 AC Milan 38 59.6 43.3 +16.3 70
5 AS Roma 38 55.4 39.1 +16.3 73
6 Atalanta 38 57.3 42.2 +15.1 59
7 Napoli 38 49.7 36.7 +13.0 76
8 Fiorentina 38 49.8 47.5 +2.3 42
9 Bologna 38 44.0 45.8 -1.8 56
10 Lazio 38 41.0 43.5 -2.5 54
11 Genoa 38 45.1 48.8 -3.7 41
12 Torino 38 44.8 52.8 -8.0 45
13 Udinese 38 42.0 52.2 -10.2 50
14 Sassuolo 38 42.6 55.3 -12.7 49
15 Hellas Verona 38 35.2 48.6 -13.4 21
16 Cagliari 38 36.9 53.3 -16.4 43
17 Pisa 38 39.6 58.9 -19.3 18
18 Cremonese 38 35.0 57.8 -22.8 34
19 Parma 38 32.2 56.6 -24.4 45
20 Lecce 38 30.9 57.4 -26.5 38