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Bản tóm tắt:
Mô hình và thị trường đều nghiêng về Ningbo Professional, nhưng không cho thấy nhóm nào được yêu thích hơn. Hòa và {giây} vẫn hợp lý - đây là một trận đấu tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý khác biệt đáng kể so với giá thị trường hiện tại. Điều này có thể phản ánh sự bất đồng thực sự hoặc thông tin đánh giá đầu vào không đầy đủ.
Về mặt thực tế, thị trường lạc quan hơn về Nanjing City so với ước tính hợp lý hiện tại.
Hoạt động thị trường phù hợp với khoảng cách giá lớn nhất trên Nanjing City.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nanjing City | 33.77% | 45.61% | -11.8 pp |
| Hòa | 29.64% | 29.59% | +0.1 pp |
| Ningbo Professional | 36.59% | 24.79% | +11.8 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Nanjing City market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Nanjing City
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Cảnh báo xác thực mô hình
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"status": "market_ahead",
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"divergence_level": "strong",
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"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ningbo Professional",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 24.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Ningbo Professional, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Nanjing City remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.84,
"hero_label": "Nanjing City",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
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"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Nanjing City than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Nanjing City.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Nanjing City than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Nanjing City."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Nanjing City more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Nanjing City (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/11) supports the current market view on Nanjing City."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 11.84,
"model_validation": {
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"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
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"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
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{
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],
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"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Nanjing City.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Nanjing City (24.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ningbo Professional, Market \u2192 Nanjing City, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"clv_pending": true,
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"current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
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"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Nanjing City",
"steam_score": 30,
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"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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},
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 27556,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Ningbo Professional",
"country_code": "CN",
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"country_name": "China",
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"home_team_country": "China",
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"home_team_name": "Nanjing City",
"league_country": "China",
"league_id": 170,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/170.webp",
"league_name": "League One",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 11:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Nanjing",
"venue_name": "Wutaishan Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
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"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 3.67,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": 0.0169,
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"p_final": 0.2771
},
"draw": {
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"best_odd": 3.075,
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0002,
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"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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}
},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"edge_no": -0.0689,
"edge_yes": 0.0689,
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"ev_no": -0.181,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"implied_no": 0.5239,
"implied_yes": 0.4761,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.38,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"edge_over": 0.0632,
"edge_under": -0.0632,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1472,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
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"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": 0.0169,
"implied_prob": 0.2479,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Ningbo Professional"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0689,
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0632,
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4188,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528773,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1472,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4188,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4188,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ningbo Professional",
"home": "Nanjing City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528773,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T08:07:07.551567+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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