Dự báo đáng tin cậy
Bản tóm tắt:
Cả hai đều nạc Hebei Kungfu, nhưng thị trường định giá chúng cao hơn (43.5% so với mô hình 38.0%). Lợi thế vẫn còn khiêm tốn và trận đấu vẫn tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý và giá cả thị trường khác nhau một cách khiêm tốn. Theo dõi trước giờ khai mạc.
Ước tính hợp lý cho thấy lợi thế khiêm tốn so với giá thị trường hiện tại của Suzhou Dongwu.
Tuy nhiên, Hebei Kungfu đã có sự chênh lệch — tỷ lệ cược kéo dài thêm 0.0%, cho thấy mức hỗ trợ đang suy yếu.
Hoạt động thị trường hiện tập trung vào Hebei Kungfu.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hebei Kungfu | 38.01% | 43.48% | -5.5 pp |
| Hòa | 29.59% | 31.46% | -1.9 pp |
| Suzhou Dongwu | 32.39% | 25.06% | +7.3 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Hebei Kungfu market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Hebei Kungfu
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Giám sát thị trường
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
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"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
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"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
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"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
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"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
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"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.33,
"hero_label": "Suzhou Dongwu",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
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],
"follow_up": "However, Hebei Kungfu has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Suzhou Dongwu.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Hebei Kungfu.",
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"title": "Market Assessment"
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"market_narrative": {
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],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
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"model_validation": {
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},
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"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
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],
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},
"interpretation": {
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"paragraphs": [
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],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
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"market_move_intelligence": {
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"market_overview": {
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"move_display": "+0.0%",
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"steam_team_name": "Hebei Kungfu",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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},
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 5688,
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"away_team_name": "Suzhou Dongwu",
"country_code": "CN",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cn.svg",
"country_name": "China",
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"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "China",
"home_team_id": 17264,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/17264.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hebei Kungfu",
"league_country": "China",
"league_id": 170,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/170.webp",
"league_name": "League One",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 11:30:00",
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"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Shijiazhuang",
"venue_name": "Yutong International Sports Center"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
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"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
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],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.0195,
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},
"draw": {
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"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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},
"btts": {
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"edge_yes": 0.1156,
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"ev_no": -0.2385,
"ev_yes": 0.1968,
"implied_no": 0.5716,
"implied_yes": 0.4284,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.7,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": 0.1213,
"edge_under": -0.1213,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3014,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"implied_over": 0.3607,
"implied_under": 0.6393,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3014,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0225,
"ev": -0.1363,
"implied_prob": 0.4348,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Hebei Kungfu"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1156,
"ev": 0.1968,
"implied_prob": 0.4284,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1213,
"ev": 0.3014,
"implied_prob": 0.3607,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528624,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3014,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3014,
"implied_prob": 0.3607,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3014,
"implied_prob": 0.3607,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Suzhou Dongwu",
"home": "Hebei Kungfu"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.107059,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1968,
"implied_prob": 0.4284,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528624,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T08:06:53.808443+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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