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Bản tóm tắt:
Mô hình và thị trường đều nghiêng về Chaco For Ever, nhưng không cho thấy nhóm nào được yêu thích hơn. Hòa và {giây} vẫn hợp lý - đây là một trận đấu tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý khác biệt đáng kể so với giá thị trường hiện tại. Điều này có thể phản ánh sự bất đồng thực sự hoặc thông tin đánh giá đầu vào không đầy đủ.
Ước tính hợp lý về mặt thống kê cao hơn đáng kể so với thị trường trên Chaco For Ever.
Hoạt động thị trường phù hợp với khoảng cách giá lớn nhất trên Chaco For Ever.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chaco For Ever | 42.37% | 27.57% | +14.8 pp |
| Hòa | 29.26% | 33.88% | -4.6 pp |
| Colon Santa Fe | 28.37% | 38.55% | -10.2 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Chaco For Ever market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Chaco For Ever
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Cảnh báo xác thực mô hình
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"facts": {
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{
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"double_chance": {
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{
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{
"key": "12",
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{
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{
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"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"market_team": "Colon Santa Fe",
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"model_team": "Chaco For Ever",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
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"outcome": "home"
},
{
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"outcome": "draw"
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{
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"outcome": "away"
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{
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"label": "Over 2.5",
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"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
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{
"edge_pp": -15.46,
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"outcome": "under"
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{
"edge_pp": 12.78,
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{
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"edge_snapshot": {
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"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Chaco For Ever",
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"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Chaco For Ever"
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"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 14.8,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chaco For Ever",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 27.6,
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Chaco For Ever, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Draw remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.8,
"hero_label": "Chaco For Ever",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Chaco For Ever.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Chaco For Ever.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Chaco For Ever.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Chaco For Ever."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Chaco For Ever more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Chaco For Ever (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Chaco For Ever."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 14.8,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.1 pp (at 42.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 14.8,
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"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chaco For Ever",
"market_prob_pct": 27.57,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.88,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Colon Santa Fe",
"market_prob_pct": 38.55,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Chaco For Ever.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Colon Santa Fe (27.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Chaco For Ever, Market \u2192 Colon Santa Fe, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "model_validation_warning",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.3,
"entry_odds": 3.3,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
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"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Chaco For Ever",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Chaco For Ever",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 448,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/448.webp",
"away_team_name": "Colon Santa Fe",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498348,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 1946,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1946.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chaco For Ever",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-20 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Resistencia",
"venue_name": "Estadio Juan Alberto Garcia"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3815,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0387,
"ev": -0.1816,
"implied_prob": 0.3855,
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.3468
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4186,
"best_odd": 2.685,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.3388,
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.3194
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2334,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0345,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.2757,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"p_final": 0.3102
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"edge_no": -0.1278,
"edge_yes": 0.1278,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2624,
"ev_yes": 0.2828,
"implied_no": 0.5888,
"implied_yes": 0.4112,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.94,
"best_under_odd": 1.4,
"edge_over": 0.1546,
"edge_under": -0.1546,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4171,
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"implied_over": 0.3274,
"implied_under": 0.6726,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4171,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4236,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0345,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.2757,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chaco For Ever"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1278,
"ev": 0.2828,
"implied_prob": 0.4112,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1546,
"ev": 0.4171,
"implied_prob": 0.3274,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498348,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4171,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.284,
"draw": 0.2923,
"home": 0.4236
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4171,
"implied_prob": 0.3274,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4171,
"implied_prob": 0.3274,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Colon Santa Fe",
"home": "Chaco For Ever"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.152429,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2828,
"implied_prob": 0.4112,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498348,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T08:31:06.747927+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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