Dự đoán đáng tin cậy
Bản tóm tắt:
Cả hai đều nạc Atlanta, nhưng thị trường định giá chúng cao hơn (42.1% so với mô hình 37.5%). Lợi thế vẫn còn khiêm tốn và trận đấu vẫn tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý và giá cả thị trường khác nhau một cách khiêm tốn. Theo dõi trước giờ khai mạc.
Ước tính hợp lý cho thấy lợi thế khiêm tốn so với giá thị trường hiện tại của Almagro.
Hoạt động thị trường phù hợp với khoảng cách giá lớn nhất trên Almagro.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almagro | 32.85% | 25.79% | +7.1 pp |
| Hòa | 29.61% | 32.1% | -2.5 pp |
| Atlanta | 37.54% | 42.11% | -4.6 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Almagro market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Almagro
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Giám sát thị trường
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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{
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"double_chance": {
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{
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{
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"home_xg": 1.25,
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"market_cards": [
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"text": "-27.2%"
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"featured": true,
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"tier": "best",
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"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"model_team": "Atlanta",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
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"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"outcome": "home"
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{
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"outcome": "away"
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{
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"outcome": "over"
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{
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{
"edge_pp": 13.58,
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{
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],
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"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Almagro",
"market_prob_pct": 25.79,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Almagro"
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"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 7.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atlanta",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "Both lean Atlanta, but the market prices them higher (42.1% vs model 37.5%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.06,
"hero_label": "Almagro",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Almagro.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Almagro.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Almagro.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Almagro."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Almagro.",
"Recent line movement on Almagro (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Almagro."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 7.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
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"is_hero": true,
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"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.1,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atlanta",
"market_prob_pct": 42.11,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Almagro.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atlanta (42.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Atlanta, Market \u2192 Atlanta, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.49,
"entry_odds": 3.51,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
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"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Almagro",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Almagro",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1948,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1948.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atlanta",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498344,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 482,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/482.webp",
"home_team_name": "Almagro",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-20 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Jose Ingenieros",
"venue_name": "Estadio Tres de Febrero"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4194,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.402
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4329,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1257,
"implied_prob": 0.321,
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.31
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2681,
"best_odd": 3.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0281,
"implied_prob": 0.2579,
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2769
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"edge_no": -0.1358,
"edge_yes": 0.1358,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_yes": 0.2971,
"implied_no": 0.5908,
"implied_yes": 0.4092,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.88,
"best_under_odd": 1.42,
"edge_over": 0.1451,
"edge_under": -0.1451,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3882,
"ev_under": -0.2644,
"implied_over": 0.3369,
"implied_under": 0.6631,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Atlanta"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1358,
"ev": 0.2971,
"implied_prob": 0.4092,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1451,
"ev": 0.3882,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498344,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3882,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3882,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3882,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atlanta",
"home": "Almagro"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.161919,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2971,
"implied_prob": 0.4092,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498344,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T08:26:44.697645+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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