📈 Understanding Market Confidence: How OLM and RLT Help You Analyze Betting Lines

In modern sports betting analysis, simply looking at odds figures is not enough. Extracting market signals from odds changes is a core skill for professional players and arbitrage tools. This is why the concept of Market Confidence was introduced.

Market Confidence is calculated based on two types of indicators:

  1. OLM (Opening Line Movement) — Changes from opening odds to current odds
  2. RLT (Recent Line Trend) — Strength of recent odds trends

Combining these two indicators allows you to intuitively judge the direction of market confidence for various match outcomes, enabling more precise betting decisions.


1️⃣ OLM: Market Flow from Opening to Current

Definition:

  • OLM focuses on changes from opening odds to current odds.
  • Odds increase → Market confidence decreases (less favorable for the outcome)
  • Odds decrease → Market confidence increases (more favorable for the outcome)

Example:

  • Ajax opening odds 3.80, current odds 4.10
  • Odds increase → Market confidence decreases → Players may reduce bets on Ajax winning

Value:

  • Quickly assess fund flow
  • Identify changes in market attitude toward specific outcomes
  • Help recognize potential arbitrage opportunities or value bets

2️⃣ RLT: Strength of Recent Odds Trends

Definition:

  • RLT focuses on short-term odds history and calculates trend strength (Trend Strength, TS).
  • By analyzing continuous or segmented odds changes, it quantifies market confidence.
  • Greater TS → Stronger trend → Clearer market attitude

Overview of Calculation Method:

  • Calculate percentage change for each odds movement
Δ% = (Current Odds - Previous Odds) / Previous Odds × 100%
  • Segmented calculation of trend TS_segment
  • Divide odds history into continuous rising/falling segments
  • TS_segment = Segment length × Average percentage change
  • Weighted average TS
  • Recent changes are weighted higher → Use exponential decay weighting
  • Normalize to Market Confidence Score (MCS)
MCS = 50 + TS × K
  • MCS > 50 → Market less favorable (odds increase)
  • MCS < 50 → Market favorable (odds decrease)

Advantages:

  • Capture short-term fluctuation trends
  • Account for both continuous trends and volatility
  • Help players assess trend strength beyond just odds figures

3️⃣ How to Apply OLM and RLT

  • Determine market confidence direction
  • Can be displayed on web pages with arrows or flow charts
  • Example: Draw, Ajax → Benfica, indicating market funds are shifting from draw and home team to the away team
  • Discover value betting opportunities
  • When an outcome's MCS is significantly below 50 and the market is generally hesitant → There may be undervalued opportunities
  • Support arbitrage and hedging strategies
  • Combine odds changes from different bookmakers to precisely capture arbitrage windows

4️⃣ Summary

Market Confidence (OLM & RLT) is an essential tool for professional players:

  • OLM: Focus on fund flow from opening to current
  • RLT: Quantify the strength of recent odds trends
  • MCS: Unified quantification of market confidence, 0~100 at a glance

By combining OLM and RLT, you can not only understand odds figures but also gain insights into market psychology, enabling scientific and rational betting decisions.

At OddsGPT, we visualize OLM and RLT, allowing you to quickly grasp market confidence dynamics without tedious calculations.