Matagalpa vs Walter Ferretti Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Matagalpa
Oct 15, 2026 - 01:00
1.33 1.27
Walter Ferretti
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Matagalpa opened at 0 against Walter Ferretti in the Primera Division. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Matagalpa 0
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Matagalpa than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Matagalpa 0
@ 2.03
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.93
Price Advantage
+5.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.90 / 1.76 0 1.90 / 1.76 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.00 / 1.77 0 2.03 / 1.75 — 0
Bet365 0 1.80 / 2.00 0 1.80 / 2.00 — 0
1xBet 0 1.96 / 1.81 0 1.96 / 1.81 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.86 / 1.81 0 1.87 / 1.80 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
xG 1.33 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.03
Matagalpa @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.93
Matagalpa @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.03 vs 1.93
Market price is 5.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.30 10.00
-2.00 7.20 9.30
-1.50 5.20 4.70
-1.25 3.92 4.30
-1.00 4.33 3.84
-0.75 3.08 2.78
-0.25 2.28 2.03
0 1.96 1.81
+0.25 1.63 1.60
+0.75 1.34 1.28
+1.00 1.18 1.14
+1.25 1.15 1.18
+1.50 1.12 1.10

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.80 2.00

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.87 1.80

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.30 9.30
-1.50 5.20 4.70
-1.25 4.30 4.30
-1.00 4.33 3.84
-0.75 3.08 2.78
-0.25 2.19 2.03
0 1.90 1.76
+0.25 1.63 1.54
+0.75 1.34 1.28
+1.00 1.18 1.14
+1.25 1.15 1.15
+1.50 1.12 1.10

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.28 2.77
-0.50 2.69 2.33
-0.25 2.37 2.05
0 2.03 1.75
+0.25 1.71 1.53
+0.50 1.53 1.41
+0.75 1.38 1.28
Primary Bets
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