Montenegro W vs Bosnia-Herzegovina W Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Montenegro W
Final Score
3 – 2
(HT 2-1)
Bosnia-Herzegovina W
Kick-off 11:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Montenegro W opened at -0.25 against Bosnia-Herzegovina W in the Friendlies Women. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.37 / 1.23
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Montenegro W -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.13
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.13 AH points more toward Bosnia-Herzegovina W than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Montenegro W -0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.13
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.16
Price Advantage
+48.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
08:10
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.20 / 1.53 -0.25 2.83 / 1.66 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.83 / 1.79 -0.25 2.83 / 1.79 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.20 / 1.53 -0.25 3.20 / 1.53 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.10 2.97
-1.00 7.20 2.34
-0.25 3.20 1.53
0 2.83 1.33
+0.25 2.21 1.26
+1.00 1.50 1.03
+1.50 1.30 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 7.00 2.85
-1.00 6.40 2.50
-0.75 4.40 2.10
-0.50 3.45 2.00
-0.25 3.10 1.68
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.15 1.35
+0.50 1.80 1.30
+0.75 1.70 1.20
+1.00 1.50 1.12
+1.25 1.40 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.90 3.34
-1.00 5.95 2.67
-0.25 2.83 1.66
0 2.46 1.43
+0.25 1.99 1.33
+1.00 1.39 1.07
+1.50 1.24 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.23 2.04
-0.25 2.83 1.79
0 2.45 1.50
+0.25 1.98 1.37
+0.50 1.71 1.29
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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