SOL DE America vs Sportivo Carapeguá Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

SOL DE America
Final Score
2 – 4
(HT 2-1)
Sportivo Carapeguá
Kick-off 22:30 Stadium Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

SOL DE America opened at -0.25 against Sportivo Carapeguá in the Division Intermedia. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.27
SOL DE America -0.27

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.45 / 1.15
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
SOL DE America -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward SOL DE America than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Sportivo Carapeguá +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.02
Price Advantage
+48.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
20:53
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.72 / 2.74 -0.25 1.72 / 2.83 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.58 / 3.08 -0.50 1.98 / 3.15 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 3.00 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.74 / 2.74 -0.25 1.74 / 2.83 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.78 7.50
-1.00 2.97 6.45
-0.75 2.30 4.20
-0.25 1.74 2.83
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.33 1.93
+0.75 1.15 1.49
+1.00 1.05 1.30
+1.50 1.03 1.19

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.45 7.00
-1.25 3.00 6.60
-1.00 2.68 6.25
-0.75 2.25 4.25
-0.50 1.98 3.45
-0.25 1.72 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.08
+0.50 1.30 1.82
+0.75 1.21 1.62
+1.00 1.12 1.45
+1.25 1.11 1.38
+1.50 1.10 1.30

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.78 7.50
-1.00 2.97 6.45
-0.75 2.30 4.20
-0.25 1.72 2.83
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.33 1.91
+0.75 1.15 1.49
+1.00 1.05 1.30
+1.50 1.03 1.19

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.98 3.15
-0.25 1.74 2.79
0 1.47 2.43
+0.25 1.35 1.97
+0.50 1.28 1.71
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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