Tacuary vs Paraguari AC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Tacuary
Final Score
2 – 4
(HT 0-1)
Paraguari AC
Kick-off 20:00 Stadium Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Tacuary opened at 0 against Paraguari AC in the Division Intermedia. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.29 / 1.31
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Tacuary 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Paraguari AC than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No positive price advantage at the valid market line.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
0
18:01
Last Pre-Match
0
19:58
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.35 / 1.91 -0.25 2.33 / 1.98 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.02 / 1.69 0 2.03 / 1.71 — 0
Bet365 0 2.05 / 1.75 0 2.00 / 1.80 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.37 / 1.91 -0.25 2.35 / 1.98 +0.25 0
BetVictor 0 1.78 / 1.57 0 1.78 / 1.57 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.80 4.70
-1.25 5.26 4.30
-1.00 4.90 3.84
-0.75 3.34 2.78
-0.25 2.35 1.98
0 1.99 1.69
+0.25 1.67 1.49
+0.75 1.34 1.24
+1.00 1.18 1.11
+1.25 1.15 1.09
+1.50 1.12 1.07

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 6.25
-1.50 5.50 4.65
-1.25 5.00 4.25
-1.00 4.40 3.80
-0.75 3.30 2.85
-0.50 2.68 2.38
-0.25 2.35 2.10
0 2.00 1.80
+0.25 1.70 1.58
+0.50 1.55 1.45
+0.75 1.40 1.32
+1.00 1.25 1.20
+1.25 1.21 1.17
+1.50 1.18 1.15
+1.75 1.12 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.78 1.57

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.80 4.70
-1.00 4.90 3.84
-0.75 3.34 2.78
-0.25 2.33 1.98
0 1.99 1.69
+0.25 1.67 1.48
+0.75 1.34 1.24
+1.00 1.18 1.11
+1.50 1.12 1.07

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.38 2.80
-0.50 2.74 2.33
-0.25 2.40 2.03
0 2.03 1.71
+0.25 1.68 1.49
+0.50 1.50 1.37
+0.75 1.35 1.25
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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