Moghreb Tetouan vs FUS Rabat Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Moghreb Tetouan
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
FUS Rabat
Kick-off 20:00 Stadium Stade Saniat Rmel

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Moghreb Tetouan opened at -0.25 against FUS Rabat in the Botola Pro. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.26 / 1.34
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Moghreb Tetouan -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward FUS Rabat than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
FUS Rabat +0.25
@ 2.08
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+24.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:30
Opening
-0.25
15:21
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.46 / 1.94 -0.25 2.81 / 1.79 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.87 / 1.87 -0.25 2.85 / 1.71 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.60 / 2.02 -0.25 2.60 / 1.82 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.48 / 1.94 0 1.91 / 1.75 — +0.25
BetVictor 0 1.97 / 1.72 -0.25 2.82 / 1.86 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 8.40
-1.50 6.55 5.75
-1.25 5.95 5.20
-1.00 5.40 4.65
-0.75 3.42 3.08
-0.25 2.30 2.08
0 1.91 1.75
+0.25 1.60 1.51
+0.75 1.28 1.23
+1.00 1.12 1.09
+1.25 1.10 1.07
+1.50 1.07 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 5.75
-1.25 7.00 5.00
-1.00 6.40 4.40
-0.75 4.00 3.10
-0.50 3.10 2.42
-0.25 2.60 1.82
0 2.15 1.68
+0.25 1.98 1.48
+0.50 1.52 1.35
+0.75 1.35 1.23
+1.00 1.20 1.12
+1.25 1.17 1.10
+1.50 1.14 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.86 2.19
-0.25 2.82 1.86
0 2.31 1.52
+0.25 1.81 1.36
+0.50 1.58 1.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.80 6.10
-1.50 8.50 4.60
-1.25 7.90 4.10
-1.00 7.30 3.50
-0.75 4.40 2.52
-0.25 2.81 1.79
0 2.36 1.49
+0.25 1.83 1.33
+0.75 1.41 1.14
+1.00 1.22 1.03
+1.25 1.16 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.58 2.31
-0.50 3.24 1.97
-0.25 2.85 1.71
0 2.45 1.43
+0.25 1.93 1.30
+0.50 1.67 1.24
+0.75 1.47 1.26
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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