Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Scarborough Athletic
Oct 06, 2026 - 18:45 ET
1 1.22
1 1.38
Macclesfield
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.50
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Scarborough Athletic opened at -0.25 against Macclesfield in the FA Cup. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Scarborough Athletic +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Scarborough Athletic -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.39
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.39 AH points more toward Macclesfield than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Macclesfield +0.25
@ 1.79
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.39
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.62
Price Advantage
+10.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.30 / 1.92 -0.25 2.49 / 1.77 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.57 / 1.79 -0.50 2.89 / 1.98 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.31 / 1.94 -0.25 2.51 / 1.79 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
xG 1.22 / 1.38 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.49
Scarborough Athletic @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.62
Scarborough Athletic @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.49 vs 2.62
Market price is 5.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.00 6.30
-1.75 7.20 4.50
-1.50 5.65 3.58
-1.25 5.25 3.21
-1.00 4.85 2.88
-0.75 3.43 2.31
-0.25 2.51 1.79
0 2.21 1.56
+0.25 1.87 1.43
+0.75 1.50 1.23
+1.00 1.32 1.11
+1.25 1.26 1.09
+1.50 1.21 1.08
+1.75 1.13 1.03

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.20 4.50
-1.50 5.65 3.58
-1.25 5.25 3.20
-1.00 4.85 2.88
-0.75 3.42 2.30
-0.25 2.49 1.77
0 2.21 1.56
+0.25 1.85 1.42
+0.75 1.49 1.23
+1.00 1.32 1.11
+1.25 1.26 1.09
+1.50 1.21 1.08
+1.75 1.13 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.89 1.98
-0.25 2.59 1.78
0 2.30 1.54
+0.25 1.95 1.42
+0.50 1.73 1.34
Primary Bets
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