Tiaret vs ASM Oran Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Tiaret
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
ASM Oran
Kick-off 14:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Tiaret opened at -0.25 against ASM Oran in the Ligue 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.33 / 1.27
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Tiaret -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward ASM Oran than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
ASM Oran +0.25
@ 2.78
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+55.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
06:24
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.82 / 2.78 -0.25 1.82 / 2.78 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.91 / 2.78 -0.25 1.91 / 2.78 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.82 / 2.78 -0.25 1.82 / 2.78 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.60 7.90
-1.00 3.64 6.95
-0.25 1.82 2.78
0 1.49 2.30
+0.25 1.34 1.80
+1.00 1.04 1.22
+1.50 1.02 1.13

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.60 7.90
-1.00 3.64 6.95
-0.25 1.82 2.78
0 1.49 2.30
+0.25 1.34 1.80
+1.00 1.04 1.22
+1.50 1.02 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.24 3.24
-0.25 1.91 2.78
0 1.53 2.30
+0.25 1.36 1.81
+0.50 1.27 1.56
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More