USM Annaba vs US Chaouia Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

USM Annaba
Final Score
3 – 0
(HT 2-0)
US Chaouia
Kick-off 14:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

USM Annaba opened at -0.25 against US Chaouia in the Ligue 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 1 of 1 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
USM Annaba -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 1 / 1 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward US Chaouia than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
1 / 1 valid books · 100% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
06:24
Opening
-0.25
06:24
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.74 / 3.15 -0.25 1.74 / 3.15 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.04 3.64
-0.25 1.74 3.15
0 1.41 2.65
+0.25 1.28 1.99
+0.50 1.22 1.68
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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