Sfera U20 vs Guarani U20 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sfera U20
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Guarani U20
Kick-off 18:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sfera U20 opened at -0.25 against Guarani U20 in the Paulista - U20. The current market consensus is -0.25. The closing line is +0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.25
Sfera U20 +0.25

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.16 / 1.44
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Sfera U20 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.50
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.50 AH points more toward Guarani U20 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Guarani U20 +0.25
@ 1.91
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.50
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.54
Price Advantage
+24.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → +0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
+0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
18:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:57
PRE1
+0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.38 / 1.90 -0.25 2.52 / 1.84 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.54 / 1.91 -0.25 2.54 / 1.91 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.40 / 1.90 -0.25 2.55 / 1.84 +0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.13 / 1.73 -0.25 2.20 / 1.69 +0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.55 4.25
-1.25 4.99 3.82
-1.00 5.50 3.34
-0.75 3.68 2.52
-0.25 2.55 1.84
0 2.15 1.59
+0.25 1.78 1.42
+0.75 1.41 1.20
+1.00 1.24 1.08
+1.25 1.18 1.10
+1.50 1.15 1.05

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.20 1.69
0 1.93 1.47
+0.25 1.64 1.34

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.55 4.25
-1.00 5.50 3.34
-0.75 3.68 2.52
-0.25 2.52 1.84
0 2.15 1.59
+0.25 1.78 1.41
+0.75 1.41 1.20
+1.00 1.24 1.08
+1.50 1.15 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.90 2.17
-0.25 2.54 1.91
0 2.19 1.61
+0.25 1.83 1.44
+0.50 1.62 1.35
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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