Santo André U20 vs Juventus U20 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Santo André U20
Final Score
3 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Juventus U20
Kick-off 18:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Santo André U20 opened at -0.25 against Juventus U20 in the Paulista - U20. The current market consensus is -0.25. The closing line is 0. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.33 / 1.27
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Santo André U20 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Juventus U20 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Juventus U20 +0.25
@ 2.67
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+49.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
18:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:56
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.38 / 1.88 -0.25 1.81 / 2.52 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.81 / 2.67 -0.25 1.81 / 2.67 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.92 / 2.00 -0.25 1.92 / 2.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.40 / 1.88 -0.25 1.83 / 2.52 0 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.17 / 1.71 -0.50 1.97 / 2.20 0 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.30 8.50
-2.00 7.50 7.80
-1.50 4.00 6.25
-1.25 3.58 5.10
-1.00 3.20 5.35
-0.75 2.43 3.58
-0.25 1.83 2.52
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.41 1.83
+0.75 1.21 1.44
+1.00 1.09 1.26
+1.25 1.10 1.21
+1.50 1.06 1.17
+2.00 1.02 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.92 2.00
0 1.78 2.02
+0.25 1.80 1.88

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.29 2.35
-0.50 1.97 2.20
-0.25 1.75 2.12
0 1.52 1.84
+0.25 1.37 1.59
+0.50 1.34 1.44
+0.75 1.29 1.31

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.30 8.50
-2.00 7.50 7.80
-1.50 4.00 6.25
-1.25 3.58 3.76
-1.00 3.20 5.35
-0.75 2.43 3.58
-0.25 1.81 2.52
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.41 1.81
+0.75 1.21 1.44
+1.00 1.09 1.26
+1.25 1.19 1.21
+1.50 1.06 1.17
+2.00 1.02 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.37 3.08
-0.50 2.05 3.02
-0.25 1.81 2.67
0 1.54 2.33
+0.25 1.40 1.93
+0.50 1.32 1.69
+0.75 1.31 1.51
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More