Plaza Colonia vs Juventud Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Plaza Colonia
Oct 07, 2026 - 23:00
1.34 1.26
Juventud
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Plaza Colonia opened at -0.25 against Juventud in the Copa Uruguay. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Plaza Colonia -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Juventud than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Plaza Colonia -0.25
@ 2.71
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.24
Price Advantage
+21.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.52 / 1.95 -0.25 2.62 / 1.89 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.60 / 2.01 -0.25 2.71 / 1.93 — 0
1xBet 0 2.05 / 1.69 -0.25 2.64 / 1.91 — -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 2.55 / 1.97 -0.25 2.59 / 1.93 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
xG 1.34 / 1.26 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.71
Plaza Colonia @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.24
Plaza Colonia @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.71 vs 2.24
Market price is 21.0% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 4.80
-1.25 6.20 4.30
-1.00 6.45 3.80
-0.75 4.05 2.71
-0.25 2.64 1.91
0 2.19 1.57
+0.25 1.76 1.39
+0.75 1.37 1.17
+1.00 1.19 1.05
+1.25 1.15 1.09
+1.50 1.12 1.03

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.59 1.93
0 2.15 1.60
+0.25 1.74 1.42

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 4.80
-1.00 6.45 3.80
-0.75 4.05 2.70
-0.25 2.62 1.89
0 2.19 1.57
+0.25 1.74 1.38
+0.75 1.36 1.17
+1.00 1.19 1.05
+1.50 1.12 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.15 2.26
-0.25 2.71 1.93
0 2.27 1.58
+0.25 1.82 1.40
+0.50 1.58 1.30
Primary Bets
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