Shabab Al Ordon vs Al Buqa'a Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Shabab Al Ordon
Oct 08, 2026 - 15:00
1.25 1.35
Al Buqa'a
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Shabab Al Ordon opened at -0.25 against Al Buqa'a in the League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Shabab Al Ordon -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Al Buqa'a than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Al Buqa'a +0.25
@ 2.98
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+79.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.52 -0.25 1.73 / 2.81 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.76 / 2.98 -0.25 1.76 / 2.98 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.68 -0.25 1.82 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.83 / 2.52 -0.25 1.74 / 2.81 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.83 / 2.66 -0.25 1.75 / 2.86 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
xG 1.25 / 1.35 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.76
Shabab Al Ordon @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.52
Shabab Al Ordon @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.76 vs 2.52
Market price is 30.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.74 9.20
-1.50 3.72 7.10
-1.25 3.34 6.65
-1.00 2.92 6.20
-0.75 2.30 4.14
-0.25 1.74 2.81
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.33 1.92
+0.75 1.16 1.49
+1.00 1.06 1.31
+1.25 1.05 1.24
+1.50 1.04 1.20

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 6.80
-1.25 3.70 6.25
-1.00 3.30 5.75
-0.75 2.50 3.90
-0.50 2.15 3.10
-0.25 1.82 2.68
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.45 1.98
+0.50 1.35 1.68
+0.75 1.24 1.50
+1.00 1.14 1.32
+1.25 1.12 1.26
+1.50 1.10 1.22

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.75 2.86
0 1.48 2.41
+0.25 1.35 1.93

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.75 9.20
-1.50 3.72 7.10
-1.25 3.34 6.65
-1.00 2.92 6.20
-0.75 2.30 4.15
-0.25 1.73 2.81
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.33 1.90
+0.75 1.16 1.49
+1.00 1.06 1.31
+1.25 1.05 1.24
+1.50 1.04 1.20

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.03 3.41
-0.25 1.76 2.98
0 1.47 2.55
+0.25 1.34 2.01
+0.50 1.26 1.72
Primary Bets
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