Korea Republic U23 vs Japan U23 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Korea Republic U23
Oct 03, 2026 - 10:30
1.35 1.25
Japan U23
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Korea Republic U23 opened at -0.25 against Japan U23 in the Asian Games. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Korea Republic U23 -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Japan U23 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Japan U23 +0.25
@ 2.65
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.82
Price Advantage
+45.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.98 / 2.59 -0.25 1.98 / 2.59 — 0
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 0 1.75 / 2.05 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.97 / 2.65 -0.25 1.97 / 2.65 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
xG 1.35 / 1.25 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.98
Korea Republic U23 @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.22
Korea Republic U23 @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.98 vs 2.22
Market price is 10.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.60 6.70
-1.25 4.18 6.17
-1.00 3.70 5.60
-0.75 2.80 3.91
-0.25 1.97 2.65
0 1.61 2.17
+0.25 1.42 1.74
+0.75 1.21 1.38
+1.00 1.11 1.23
+1.25 1.08 1.18
+1.50 1.07 1.16

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.50 5.90
-1.25 5.00 5.50
-1.00 4.40 4.65
-0.75 3.10 3.30
-0.50 2.50 2.60
-0.25 2.20 2.30
0 1.75 2.05
+0.25 1.60 1.65
+0.50 1.48 1.50
+0.75 1.32 1.35
+1.00 1.18 1.20
+1.25 1.15 1.17
+1.50 1.13 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.72 3.46
-0.50 2.28 2.98
-0.25 1.98 2.59
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.46 1.83
+0.50 1.36 1.61
+0.75 1.28 1.42
Primary Bets
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