Montenegro U19 vs Israel U19 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Montenegro U19
Oct 02, 2026 - 14:00
1.21 1.39
Israel U19
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.50
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Montenegro U19 opened at -0.25 against Israel U19 in the Friendlies. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.16
Montenegro U19 +0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Montenegro U19 -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.41
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.41 AH points more toward Israel U19 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Israel U19 +0.25
@ 1.92
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.41
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.60
Price Advantage
+20.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.88 / 1.68 -0.25 2.88 / 1.68 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 3.16 / 1.96 -0.50 3.16 / 1.96 — 0
Bet365 0 2.08 / 1.72 -0.25 2.68 / 1.92 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.89 / 1.70 -0.25 2.89 / 1.70 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.37 / 1.60 -0.25 2.37 / 1.60 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.16
xG 1.21 / 1.39 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.88
Montenegro U19 @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.66
Montenegro U19 @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.88 vs 2.66
Market price is 8.3% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 4.61
-1.50 7.50 3.58
-1.25 7.00 3.21
-1.00 6.50 2.83
-0.75 4.26 2.22
-0.25 2.89 1.70
0 2.50 1.44
+0.25 1.98 1.33
+0.75 1.54 1.15
+1.00 1.33 1.05
+1.25 1.26 1.04
+1.50 1.21 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 4.15
-1.25 5.90 3.70
-1.00 5.75 3.45
-0.75 3.80 2.60
-0.50 3.10 2.20
-0.25 2.68 1.92
0 2.30 1.60
+0.25 1.88 1.45
+0.50 1.65 1.35
+0.75 1.48 1.25
+1.00 1.30 1.14
+1.25 1.26 1.13
+1.50 1.22 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.37 1.60
0 2.09 1.39
+0.25 1.74 1.28

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.00 4.60
-1.50 7.50 3.58
-1.25 7.00 3.20
-1.00 6.50 2.83
-0.75 4.25 2.21
-0.25 2.88 1.68
0 2.50 1.44
+0.25 1.96 1.32
+0.75 1.53 1.15
+1.00 1.33 1.05
+1.25 1.26 1.04
+1.50 1.21 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.16 1.96
-0.25 2.97 1.70
0 2.57 1.45
+0.25 2.07 1.35
+0.50 1.81 1.32
Primary Bets
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