Croatia U19 vs Italy U19 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Croatia U19
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Italy U19
Kick-off 13:30

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Croatia U19 opened at -0.25 against Italy U19 in the Friendlies. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.26 / 1.34
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Croatia U19 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward Italy U19 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Italy U19 +0.25
@ 2.02
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+21.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:05
Opening
-0.25
12:04
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
13:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.70 / 1.76 -0.25 2.42 / 1.91 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.85 / 1.79 0 2.13 / 1.70 0 +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.50 / 1.95 -0.25 2.68 / 1.98 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 2.71 / 1.77 -0.25 2.43 / 1.93 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.29 / 1.63 -0.25 2.13 / 1.72 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.10 5.65
-1.50 6.00 4.33
-1.25 5.55 3.90
-1.00 5.05 3.48
-0.75 3.49 2.64
-0.25 2.43 1.93
0 2.06 1.64
+0.25 1.74 1.45
+0.75 1.39 1.23
+1.00 1.22 1.10
+1.25 1.18 1.08
+1.50 1.14 1.06
+1.75 1.08 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 3.70
-1.25 5.90 3.45
-1.00 5.50 3.00
-0.75 3.80 2.38
-0.50 3.10 2.00
-0.25 2.68 1.98
0 2.35 1.58
+0.25 1.82 1.45
+0.50 1.80 1.35
+0.75 1.55 1.25
+1.00 1.38 1.15
+1.25 1.30 1.13
+1.50 1.26 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.13 1.72
0 1.88 1.50
+0.25 1.62 1.37

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.10 5.65
-1.50 6.00 4.33
-1.25 5.55 3.90
-1.00 5.05 3.48
-0.75 3.48 2.62
-0.25 2.42 1.91
0 2.06 1.64
+0.25 1.72 1.44
+0.75 1.38 1.22
+1.00 1.22 1.10
+1.25 1.18 1.08
+1.50 1.14 1.06
+1.75 1.08 1.02

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.82 2.29
-0.25 2.47 2.02
0 2.13 1.70
+0.25 1.81 1.51
+0.50 1.61 1.40
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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