Wanderers vs Boston River Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Wanderers
Oct 10, 2026 - 18:00
1.35 1.25
Boston River
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Wanderers opened at -0.25 against Boston River in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Wanderers -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Boston River than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Boston River +0.25
@ 2.74
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.82
Price Advantage
+50.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.85 / 2.49 -0.25 1.85 / 2.49 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.96 / 2.63 -0.25 1.94 / 2.74 — 0
Bet365 0 1.70 / 2.10 -0.25 1.95 / 2.68 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.87 / 2.50 -0.25 1.87 / 2.50 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.93 / 2.57 -0.25 1.93 / 2.57 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.89 / 2.59 -0.25 1.88 / 2.60 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
xG 1.35 / 1.25 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.94
Wanderers @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.22
Wanderers @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.94 vs 2.22
Market price is 12.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.75 8.60
-1.50 4.40 6.55
-1.25 3.94 6.00
-1.00 3.48 5.50
-0.75 2.57 3.59
-0.25 1.87 2.50
0 1.60 2.13
+0.25 1.43 1.79
+0.75 1.21 1.41
+1.00 1.08 1.22
+1.25 1.07 1.18
+1.50 1.05 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 6.80
-1.25 3.90 6.40
-1.00 3.55 5.90
-0.75 2.68 3.80
-0.50 2.25 3.10
-0.25 1.95 2.68
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.45 1.85
+0.50 1.35 1.62
+0.75 1.25 1.45
+1.00 1.13 1.27
+1.25 1.12 1.24
+1.50 1.10 1.20

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.88 2.60
0 1.58 2.19
+0.25 1.42 1.79

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.93 2.57
+0.25 1.50 1.85

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.75 8.70
-1.50 4.40 6.55
-1.25 3.94 6.00
-1.00 3.48 5.50
-0.75 2.56 3.58
-0.25 1.85 2.49
0 1.60 2.13
+0.25 1.42 1.77
+0.75 1.21 1.40
+1.00 1.08 1.22
+1.25 1.06 1.17
+1.50 1.05 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.70 4.04
-0.50 2.25 3.15
-0.25 1.94 2.74
0 1.63 2.31
+0.25 1.47 1.88
+0.50 1.36 1.66
+0.75 1.25 1.48
Primary Bets
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