Atletico Torque vs Danubio Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Atletico Torque
Oct 09, 2026 - 20:00
1.31 1.29
Danubio
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Atletico Torque opened at -0.25 against Danubio in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Atletico Torque -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Danubio than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Danubio +0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+82.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.65 / 2.92 -0.25 1.57 / 3.20 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 2.85 -0.25 1.75 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.66 / 2.93 -0.25 1.74 / 2.80 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 2.95 -0.25 1.67 / 2.90 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
xG 1.31 / 1.29 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.57
Atletico Torque @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.33
Atletico Torque @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.57 vs 2.33
Market price is 32.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.78 7.20
-1.25 3.35 6.75
-1.00 2.97 6.25
-0.75 2.31 4.15
-0.25 1.74 2.80
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.35 1.93
+0.75 1.16 1.50
+1.00 1.06 1.30
+1.25 1.04 1.24
+1.50 1.03 1.19

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.45 7.00
-1.00 3.00 7.00
-0.75 2.35 4.40
-0.50 2.02 3.45
-0.25 1.75 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.05
+0.50 1.30 1.78
+0.75 1.20 1.58
+1.00 1.10 1.38
+1.25 1.10 1.30

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.67 2.90
+0.25 1.40 2.15

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.28 8.30
-1.25 2.92 7.90
-1.00 2.56 7.50
-0.75 2.06 4.80
-0.25 1.57 3.20
0 1.36 2.78
+0.25 1.26 2.14
+0.75 1.12 1.62
+1.00 1.03 1.40
+1.25 1.02 1.31
Primary Bets
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