Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Deportivo Maldonado
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Liverpool Montevideo
Kick-off 23:00 Stadium Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Deportivo Maldonado opened at 0 against Liverpool Montevideo in the Primera División. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.28 / 1.32
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Deportivo Maldonado 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Liverpool Montevideo than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Liverpool Montevideo 0
@ 2.14
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.95
Price Advantage
+9.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:45
Opening
0
20:29
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.71 / 1.96 0 1.71 / 1.96 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.72 / 2.10 0 1.74 / 2.14 — 0
Bet365 0 1.80 / 2.00 0 1.70 / 2.10 — 0
1xBet 0 1.71 / 1.96 0 1.71 / 1.96 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.55 / 1.72 +0.25 1.55 / 1.72 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.71 / 1.98 -0.25 2.01 / 2.41 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.40 7.90
-1.50 4.90 5.95
-1.25 4.44 5.46
-1.00 3.95 4.95
-0.75 2.84 3.36
-0.25 2.01 2.32
0 1.71 1.96
+0.25 1.50 1.66
+0.75 1.25 1.33
+1.00 1.11 1.17
+1.25 1.09 1.14
+1.50 1.07 1.11
+1.75 1.02 1.05

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.80 6.40
-1.25 4.40 5.90
-1.00 3.90 5.50
-0.75 2.85 3.55
-0.50 2.35 2.85
-0.25 2.05 2.50
0 1.70 2.10
+0.25 1.50 1.75
+0.50 1.40 1.58
+0.75 1.27 1.40
+1.00 1.15 1.24
+1.25 1.13 1.20
+1.50 1.12 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.32 2.74
-0.25 2.01 2.41
0 1.68 2.02
+0.25 1.48 1.69
+0.50 1.38 1.52

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.37 2.82
-0.25 2.07 2.42
+0.25 1.55 1.72
+0.50 1.42 1.57

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.40 7.90
-1.50 4.90 5.95
-1.25 4.45 5.45
-1.00 3.95 4.95
-0.75 2.83 3.34
-0.25 2.00 2.30
0 1.71 1.96
+0.25 1.49 1.65
+0.75 1.24 1.33
+1.00 1.11 1.17
+1.25 1.08 1.14
+1.50 1.07 1.11
+1.75 1.02 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.17 5.44
-0.75 3.01 3.79
-0.50 2.46 2.99
-0.25 2.11 2.57
0 1.74 2.14
+0.25 1.52 1.77
+0.50 1.40 1.57
+0.75 1.28 1.40
+1.00 1.16 1.24
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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