Korea DPR W vs Japan W Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Korea DPR W
Oct 02, 2026 - 10:30
1.32 1.28
Japan W
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Korea DPR W opened at -0.25 against Japan W in the Asian Games Women. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Korea DPR W -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Japan W than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Korea DPR W -0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.30
Price Advantage
+13.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.49 / 1.85 -0.25 2.49 / 1.85 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.60 / 1.90 -0.25 2.60 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.52 / 1.85 -0.25 2.52 / 1.85 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.49
Korea DPR W @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Korea DPR W @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.49 vs 2.30
Market price is 8.3% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 4.30
-1.25 5.18 3.86
-1.00 5.45 3.42
-0.75 3.58 2.52
-0.25 2.52 1.85
0 2.15 1.59
+0.25 1.77 1.44
+0.75 1.41 1.21
+1.00 1.23 1.08
+1.25 1.18 1.10
+1.50 1.15 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.90 4.00
-1.25 5.75 3.55
-1.00 5.25 3.30
-0.75 3.55 2.60
-0.50 3.00 2.20
-0.25 2.60 1.90
0 2.25 1.62
+0.25 1.90 1.48
+0.50 1.65 1.38
+0.75 1.48 1.27
+1.00 1.32 1.16
+1.25 1.27 1.14
+1.50 1.23 1.13

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 4.30
-1.00 5.45 3.42
-0.75 3.58 2.52
-0.25 2.49 1.85
0 2.15 1.59
+0.25 1.77 1.42
+0.75 1.41 1.21
+1.00 1.23 1.08
+1.50 1.15 1.05
Primary Bets
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