Albania U19 vs Lithuania U19 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Albania U19
Oct 02, 2026 - 13:30
1.31 1.29
Lithuania U19
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Albania U19 opened at -0.25 against Lithuania U19 in the Friendlies. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Albania U19 -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Lithuania U19 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Lithuania U19 +0.25
@ 2.39
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+36.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.91 / 2.38 -0.25 1.91 / 2.38 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.39 -0.25 1.93 / 2.39 — 0
Bet365 0 1.95 / 1.85 0 1.82 / 1.98 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.93 / 2.39 -0.25 1.93 / 2.39 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.74 / 2.13 -0.25 1.74 / 2.13 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
xG 1.31 / 1.29 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.93
Albania U19 @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.33
Albania U19 @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.93 vs 2.33
Market price is 17.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.50 9.10
-2.00 9.20 8.00
-1.75 5.90 8.10
-1.50 4.45 6.05
-1.25 4.01 5.51
-1.00 3.50 5.00
-0.75 2.64 3.43
-0.25 1.93 2.39
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.47 1.74
+0.75 1.23 1.39
+1.00 1.10 1.22
+1.25 1.08 1.17
+1.50 1.06 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.07
+2.50 1.02 1.03

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.25 6.80
-1.50 4.65 5.25
-1.25 4.25 4.65
-1.00 3.80 4.15
-0.75 2.85 3.10
-0.50 2.38 2.50
-0.25 2.10 2.25
0 1.82 1.98
+0.25 1.62 1.70
+0.50 1.50 1.55
+0.75 1.35 1.40
+1.00 1.22 1.25
+1.25 1.18 1.21
+1.50 1.16 1.18
+1.75 1.10 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.74 2.13
0 1.51 1.86
+0.25 1.37 1.60

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.90 8.10
-1.50 4.45 6.05
-1.25 4.00 5.50
-1.00 3.50 5.00
-0.75 2.62 3.42
-0.25 1.91 2.38
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.46 1.72
+0.75 1.23 1.38
+1.00 1.10 1.22
+1.25 1.08 1.17
+1.50 1.06 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.07

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.18 2.70
-0.25 1.93 2.39
0 1.65 2.09
+0.25 1.48 1.78
+0.50 1.38 1.59
Primary Bets
More