Albania U19 vs Lithuania U19 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Albania U19
Sep 30, 2026 - 13:30
1.31 1.29
Lithuania U19
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Albania U19 opened at -0.25 against Lithuania U19 in the Friendlies. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Albania U19 -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Lithuania U19 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Lithuania U19 +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+77.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.60 / 3.05 -0.25 1.58 / 3.08 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 2.75 -0.25 1.68 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.61 / 3.06 -0.25 1.59 / 3.10 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
xG 1.31 / 1.29 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.58
Albania U19 @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.33
Albania U19 @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.58 vs 2.33
Market price is 32.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.94 8.30
-1.50 3.14 7.70
-1.25 2.84 7.30
-1.00 2.49 6.85
-0.75 2.04 4.56
-0.25 1.59 3.10
0 1.37 2.74
+0.25 1.29 2.14
+0.75 1.13 1.64
+1.00 1.04 1.42
+1.25 1.03 1.33
+1.50 1.02 1.27
+1.75 1.02 1.18

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.30 6.60
-1.25 3.00 6.25
-1.00 2.60 6.60
-0.75 2.15 4.25
-0.50 1.85 3.45
-0.25 1.68 3.00
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.38 2.15
+0.50 1.30 1.95
+0.75 1.21 1.68
+1.00 1.11 1.48
+1.25 1.12 1.38
+1.50 1.11 1.32

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.94 8.30
-1.50 3.14 7.70
-1.25 2.83 7.30
-1.00 2.49 6.85
-0.75 2.03 4.55
-0.25 1.58 3.08
0 1.37 2.74
+0.25 1.28 2.12
+0.75 1.13 1.63
+1.00 1.04 1.42
+1.25 1.03 1.33
+1.50 1.02 1.27
+1.75 1.02 1.17
Primary Bets
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