Churchill Brothers vs Mumbai City Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Churchill Brothers
Oct 11, 2026 - 14:00
1.32 1.28
Mumbai City
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Churchill Brothers opened at -0.25 against Mumbai City in the Indian Super League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Churchill Brothers -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Mumbai City than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Churchill Brothers -0.25
@ 3.09
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.30
Price Advantage
+34.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.83 / 1.69 -0.25 2.83 / 1.69 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.09 / 1.74 -0.25 3.09 / 1.74 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.85 / 1.72 -0.25 2.85 / 1.72 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.86 / 1.69 -0.25 2.86 / 1.69 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.55 / 1.98 -0.50 2.55 / 1.98 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.09
Churchill Brothers @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Churchill Brothers @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.09 vs 2.30
Market price is 34.3% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 4.69
-1.50 7.40 3.58
-1.25 6.89 3.20
-1.00 6.40 2.83
-0.75 4.20 2.26
-0.25 2.86 1.69
0 2.47 1.45
+0.25 1.95 1.34
+0.75 1.53 1.16
+1.00 1.33 1.05
+1.25 1.26 1.04
+1.50 1.21 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 7.00 3.30
-1.00 6.60 2.75
-0.75 4.15 2.25
-0.50 3.30 1.98
-0.25 2.85 1.72
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.08 1.40
+0.50 1.82 1.32
+0.75 1.62 1.22
+1.00 1.42 1.11
+1.25 1.32 1.10

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.55 1.98
+0.50 1.78 1.47

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.30 4.70
-1.50 7.40 3.58
-1.25 6.90 3.20
-1.00 6.40 2.83
-0.75 4.20 2.24
-0.25 2.83 1.69
0 2.47 1.45
+0.25 1.95 1.33
+0.75 1.52 1.16
+1.00 1.33 1.05
+1.25 1.26 1.04
+1.50 1.21 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.54 2.02
-0.25 3.09 1.74
0 2.64 1.47
+0.25 2.07 1.35
+0.50 1.79 1.28
Primary Bets
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