Uzbekistan U23 vs Japan U23 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Uzbekistan U23
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Japan U23
Kick-off 10:30 Stadium Osaka Nagai Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Uzbekistan U23 opened at -0.25 against Japan U23 in the Asian Games. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.27 / 1.33
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Uzbekistan U23 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Japan U23 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Uzbekistan U23 -0.25
@ 2.95
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.45
Price Advantage
+20.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
-0.25
00:54
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.95 / 1.65 -0.25 2.95 / 1.65 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 3.20 / 1.97 -0.50 3.20 / 1.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.02 / 1.65 -0.25 3.02 / 1.65 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 4.64
-1.50 8.00 3.58
-1.25 7.49 3.20
-1.00 7.00 2.78
-0.75 4.45 2.19
-0.25 3.02 1.65
0 2.61 1.44
+0.25 2.02 1.34
+0.75 1.54 1.14
+1.00 1.34 1.04
+1.25 1.26 1.03
+1.50 1.21 1.02

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.30 4.65
-1.50 8.00 3.58
-1.25 7.50 3.20
-1.00 7.00 2.78
-0.75 4.45 2.19
-0.25 2.95 1.65
0 2.61 1.44
+0.25 2.02 1.31
+0.75 1.54 1.14
+1.00 1.34 1.04
+1.25 1.26 1.03
+1.50 1.21 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.20 1.75
-0.25 3.48 1.52
0 3.34 1.30
+0.25 2.46 1.26
+0.50 2.07 1.31
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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