Cavalier vs Arnett Gardens Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Cavalier
Final Score
3 – 2
(HT 2-1)
Arnett Gardens
Kick-off 20:30 Stadium Stadium East

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Cavalier opened at 0 against Arnett Gardens in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Cavalier from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.30 / 1.30
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Cavalier -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Arnett Gardens than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Arnett Gardens +0.25
@ 2.44
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+40.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:15
Opening
0
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
20:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.72 / 1.95 -0.25 1.98 / 2.38 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.03 / 1.75 -0.25 2.03 / 2.44 -0.25 -0.25
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 0 1.70 / 2.10 0 0
1xBet 0 1.72 / 1.95 0 1.68 / 2.00 0 0
BetVictor 0 1.72 / 1.97 -0.25 1.97 / 2.36 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.10 10.50
-2.00 8.40 10.00
-1.50 4.40 5.65
-1.25 4.00 4.79
-1.00 3.58 4.80
-0.75 2.70 3.34
-0.25 2.00 2.38
0 1.68 2.00
+0.25 1.46 1.68
+0.75 1.24 1.36
+1.00 1.12 1.21
+1.25 1.12 1.17
+1.50 1.08 1.14

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.00 6.60
-1.50 3.90 5.25
-1.25 3.55 4.65
-1.00 3.30 4.25
-0.75 2.60 3.30
-0.50 2.25 2.75
-0.25 2.00 2.38
0 1.70 2.10
+0.25 1.55 1.80
+0.50 1.42 1.62
+0.75 1.32 1.48
+1.00 1.21 1.32
+1.25 1.18 1.27
+1.50 1.16 1.24
+1.75 1.11 1.17

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.25 2.66
-0.25 1.97 2.36
0 1.68 2.02
+0.25 1.50 1.72
+0.50 1.40 1.55

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.40 8.70
-1.50 4.40 5.65
-1.25 4.00 4.45
-1.00 3.58 4.80
-0.75 2.70 3.34
-0.25 1.98 2.38
0 1.68 2.00
+0.25 1.46 1.67
+0.75 1.24 1.36
+1.00 1.12 1.21
+1.25 1.14 1.17
+1.50 1.08 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.75 3.39
-0.50 2.33 2.80
-0.25 2.03 2.44
0 1.69 2.07
+0.25 1.49 1.74
+0.50 1.38 1.55
+0.75 1.27 1.39
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More