Douanes vs Sporting Cascades Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Douanes
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Sporting Cascades
Kick-off 15:30 Stadium Stade Demba Diop

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Douanes opened at -0.25 against Sporting Cascades in the Ligue 1. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.31 / 1.29
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Douanes -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Sporting Cascades than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Sporting Cascades +0.25
@ 2.86
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+63.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
06:22
Opening
-0.25
14:04
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
15:30
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.88 / 2.70 -0.25 1.88 / 2.70 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.86 / 2.74 -0.25 1.86 / 2.74 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.87 / 2.86 -0.25 1.87 / 2.86 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.95 8.50
-1.00 3.88 7.30
-0.75 2.66 4.33
-0.25 1.86 2.74
0 1.53 2.27
+0.25 1.35 1.80
+0.75 1.14 1.37
+1.00 1.03 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.87 2.86
0 1.51 2.33
+0.25 1.35 1.80

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.10 8.30
-1.00 3.98 7.10
-0.75 2.74 4.25
-0.25 1.88 2.70
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.36 1.75
+0.75 1.15 1.35
+1.00 1.04 1.17
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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