Egypt U20 vs Tunisia U20 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Egypt U20
Sep 30, 2026 - 17:00
1.32 1.28
Tunisia U20
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Egypt U20 opened at -0.25 against Tunisia U20 in the Africa Cup of Nations U20. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Egypt U20 -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Tunisia U20 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Tunisia U20 +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+69.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.67 / 2.92 -0.25 1.73 / 2.81 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.83 / 2.85 -0.25 1.78 / 2.96 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 3.00 -0.25 1.80 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.68 / 2.93 -0.25 1.74 / 2.82 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.76 / 2.91 -0.25 1.76 / 2.91 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.78
Egypt U20 @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Egypt U20 @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.78 vs 2.30
Market price is 22.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.98 7.50
-1.00 3.08 6.55
-0.75 2.36 4.20
-0.25 1.74 2.82
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.34 1.92
+0.75 1.15 1.48
+1.00 1.05 1.28
+1.50 1.03 1.17

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.55 6.80
-1.00 3.10 6.40
-0.75 2.42 4.25
-0.50 2.10 3.45
-0.25 1.80 3.00
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.38 2.00
+0.50 1.30 1.70
+0.75 1.21 1.52
+1.00 1.12 1.35
+1.25 1.10 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.76 2.91
0 1.47 2.45
+0.25 1.34 1.92

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.98 7.50
-1.00 3.08 6.55
-0.75 2.35 4.20
-0.25 1.73 2.81
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.33 1.90
+0.75 1.15 1.47
+1.00 1.05 1.28
+1.50 1.03 1.17

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.05 3.39
-0.25 1.78 2.96
0 1.47 2.53
+0.25 1.34 1.99
+0.50 1.27 1.71
Primary Bets
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