Thailand vs Vietnam Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Thailand
Final Score
2 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Vietnam
Kick-off 12:30 Stadium Jalak Harupat Soreang Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Thailand opened at -0.25 against Vietnam in the FIFA Asean Cup. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Thailand -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Vietnam than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Vietnam +0.25
@ 2.70
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+52.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
14:08
Opening
-0.25
12:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
12:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.76 / 2.69 -0.25 1.88 / 2.46 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.75 / 2.10 -0.25 2.01 / 2.70 -0.25 -0.25
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 -0.25 1.98 / 2.50 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.80 / 2.69 -0.25 1.92 / 2.46 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.93 / 2.52 -0.25 1.94 / 2.53 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.70 8.20
-1.50 4.40 6.25
-1.25 3.95 5.80
-1.00 3.50 5.35
-0.75 2.59 3.58
-0.25 1.92 2.46
0 1.63 2.15
+0.25 1.44 1.80
+0.75 1.21 1.39
+1.00 1.09 1.22
+1.25 1.07 1.17
+1.50 1.06 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.08

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 5.90
-1.25 3.80 5.75
-1.00 3.45 5.25
-0.75 2.60 3.55
-0.50 2.25 2.85
-0.25 1.98 2.50
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.50 1.82
+0.50 1.40 1.62
+0.75 1.27 1.48
+1.00 1.16 1.30
+1.25 1.14 1.25
+1.50 1.13 1.22

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.25 2.74
-0.25 1.94 2.53
0 1.62 2.12
+0.25 1.44 1.74
+0.50 1.38 1.55

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.70 8.20
-1.50 4.40 6.25
-1.25 3.95 5.80
-1.00 3.50 5.30
-0.75 2.59 3.58
-0.25 1.88 2.46
0 1.63 2.15
+0.25 1.44 1.76
+0.75 1.21 1.39
+1.00 1.09 1.22
+1.25 1.07 1.17
+1.50 1.06 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.08

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.80 3.59
-0.50 2.33 3.14
-0.25 2.01 2.70
0 1.65 2.27
+0.25 1.46 1.85
+0.50 1.35 1.62
+0.75 1.28 1.43
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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