Boca Unidos vs Bartolomé Mitre Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Boca Unidos
Oct 11, 2026 - 19:00
1.30 1.30
Bartolomé Mitre
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 4 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Boca Unidos opened at -0.25 against Bartolomé Mitre in the Torneo Federal A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 4 valid books, with 50% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Boca Unidos -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 4 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Bartolomé Mitre than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Bartolomé Mitre +0.25
@ 2.83
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+62.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 4 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.74 / 2.83 -0.25 1.74 / 2.83 — 0
Bet365 0 1.80 / 2.00 0 1.80 / 2.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.93 / 2.46 -0.25 1.75 / 2.83 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.78 / 1.89 0 1.78 / 1.89 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
0
xG 1.30 / 1.30 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.74
Boca Unidos @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.36
Boca Unidos @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.74 vs 2.36
Market price is 26.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.30 8.50
-1.00 3.28 7.30
-0.75 2.41 4.39
-0.25 1.75 2.83
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.33 1.90
+0.75 1.14 1.45
+1.00 1.03 1.25

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.75 6.40
-1.25 5.25 5.90
-1.00 4.50 5.25
-0.75 3.10 3.45
-0.50 2.50 2.75
-0.25 1.80 2.38
0 1.80 2.00
+0.25 1.55 2.00
+0.50 1.42 1.50
+0.75 1.30 1.35
+1.00 1.16 1.19
+1.25 1.13 1.16
+1.50 1.12 1.14

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.78 1.89

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.30 8.50
-1.00 3.28 7.30
-0.75 2.41 4.40
-0.25 1.74 2.83
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.33 1.89
+0.75 1.14 1.45
+1.00 1.03 1.25
Primary Bets
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