USM Oujda vs Mouloudia Oujda Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

USM Oujda
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 2-1)
Mouloudia Oujda
Kick-off 15:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

USM Oujda opened at -0.25 against Mouloudia Oujda in the Botola 2. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.27 / 1.33
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
USM Oujda -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Mouloudia Oujda than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Mouloudia Oujda +0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+58.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
18:37
Opening
-0.25
14:07
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
15:01
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.88 -0.25 1.95 / 2.66 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.04 / 2.52 -0.25 2.02 / 2.68 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.83 / 2.88 -0.25 1.97 / 2.66 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.45 8.40
-1.00 4.30 7.10
-0.75 2.88 4.20
-0.25 1.97 2.66
0 1.59 2.15
+0.25 1.37 1.71
+0.75 1.15 1.32
+1.00 1.04 1.14

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.45 8.40
-1.00 4.30 7.10
-0.75 2.88 4.20
-0.25 1.95 2.66
0 1.59 2.15
+0.25 1.37 1.69
+0.75 1.15 1.32
+1.00 1.04 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.38 3.15
-0.25 2.02 2.68
0 1.61 2.19
+0.25 1.40 1.74
+0.50 1.30 1.52
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More