Chabab Ben Guerir vs Riadi Salmi Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Chabab Ben Guerir
Final Score
2 – 0
(HT 2-0)
Riadi Salmi
Kick-off 16:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Chabab Ben Guerir opened at -0.25 against Riadi Salmi in the Botola 2. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.27 / 1.33
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Chabab Ben Guerir -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Riadi Salmi than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Riadi Salmi +0.25
@ 2.63
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+55.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
15:01
Opening
-0.25
14:07
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
16:02
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.99 / 2.49 -0.25 1.98 / 2.56 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.04 / 2.58 -0.25 2.06 / 2.63 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 2.01 / 2.49 -0.25 2.00 / 2.56 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.30 7.40
-1.00 4.30 6.35
-0.75 2.92 3.96
-0.25 2.00 2.56
0 1.62 2.11
+0.25 1.40 1.68
+0.75 1.17 1.31
+1.00 1.06 1.15
+1.50 1.03 1.09

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.30 7.40
-1.00 4.30 6.35
-0.75 2.92 3.96
-0.25 1.98 2.56
0 1.62 2.11
+0.25 1.40 1.67
+0.75 1.17 1.31
+1.00 1.06 1.15
+1.50 1.03 1.09

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.45 3.12
-0.25 2.06 2.63
0 1.62 2.13
+0.25 1.40 1.69
+0.50 1.29 1.47
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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