Defensor Sporting vs Danubio Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Defensor Sporting
Sep 27, 2026 - 21:00
1.36 1.24
Danubio
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Defensor Sporting opened at -0.25 against Danubio in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Defensor Sporting -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward Danubio than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Danubio +0.25
@ 2.72
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.84
Price Advantage
+47.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.82 / 2.59 -0.25 1.84 / 2.56 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.91 / 2.79 -0.25 1.93 / 2.72 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.68 -0.25 1.98 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.84 / 2.60 -0.25 1.85 / 2.59 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.93 / 2.65 -0.25 1.93 / 2.65 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
xG 1.36 / 1.24 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.93
Defensor Sporting @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.19
Defensor Sporting @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.93 vs 2.19
Market price is 11.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.80 8.65
-1.50 4.45 6.90
-1.25 3.98 6.41
-1.00 3.50 5.85
-0.75 2.57 3.82
-0.25 1.85 2.59
0 1.57 2.19
+0.25 1.41 1.79
+0.75 1.19 1.40
+1.00 1.07 1.22
+1.25 1.06 1.17
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 4.25 6.80
-1.00 3.70 6.25
-0.75 2.75 4.00
-0.50 2.30 3.10
-0.25 1.98 2.68
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.45 1.82
+0.50 1.35 1.60
+0.75 1.23 1.42
+1.00 1.12 1.26
+1.25 1.10 1.21

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.93 2.65
+0.25 1.47 1.85

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.80 9.30
-1.50 4.45 6.90
-1.25 3.98 6.40
-1.00 3.50 5.85
-0.75 2.56 3.80
-0.25 1.84 2.56
0 1.57 2.19
+0.25 1.40 1.78
+0.75 1.19 1.40
+1.00 1.07 1.22
+1.25 1.05 1.17
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.67 4.05
-0.50 2.23 3.14
-0.25 1.93 2.72
0 1.61 2.30
+0.25 1.45 1.88
+0.50 1.35 1.65
+0.75 1.23 1.46
Primary Bets
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