El Salvador W vs Paraguay W Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

El Salvador W
Oct 10, 2026 - 01:30 2H
1 1.41
3 1.19
Paraguay W
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

El Salvador W opened at -0.25 against Paraguay W in the Friendlies Women. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
El Salvador W -0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
El Salvador W -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Paraguay W than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Paraguay W +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.94
Price Advantage
+41.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.73 / 2.66 -0.25 1.78 / 2.52 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 2.75 -0.25 1.80 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.74 / 2.67 -0.25 1.80 / 2.53 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
xG 1.41 / 1.19 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.78
El Salvador W @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.07
El Salvador W @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.78 vs 2.07
Market price is 14.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.75 6.05
-1.00 2.97 5.15
-0.75 2.36 3.58
-0.25 1.80 2.53
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.42 1.86
+0.75 1.21 1.48
+1.00 1.10 1.30
+1.50 1.06 1.19

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 6.40
-1.25 3.30 5.90
-1.00 2.85 5.50
-0.75 2.35 3.80
-0.50 2.05 3.10
-0.25 1.80 2.75
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.42 2.00
+0.50 1.35 1.75
+0.75 1.25 1.58
+1.00 1.15 1.40
+1.25 1.13 1.32
+1.50 1.12 1.27

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.75 6.05
-1.00 2.97 5.15
-0.75 2.35 3.58
-0.25 1.78 2.52
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.41 1.84
+0.75 1.21 1.47
+1.00 1.10 1.30
+1.50 1.06 1.19
Primary Bets
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