Guairena FC vs Fernando De La Mora Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Guairena FC
Final Score
0 – 2
(HT 0-0)
Fernando De La Mora
Kick-off 22:15

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Guairena FC opened at -0.25 against Fernando De La Mora in the Division Intermedia. The current market consensus is 0. The closing line is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Fernando De La Mora from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.21
Guairena FC -0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.42 / 1.18
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Guairena FC 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Guairena FC than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Guairena FC 0
@ 1.93
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+10.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
20:15
Last Pre-Match
0
22:14
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.62 / 1.79 0 1.88 / 1.78 -0.25 +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.40 / 2.02 0 1.93 / 1.81 -0.25 +0.25
Bet365 0 2.00 / 1.80 0 1.92 / 1.88 0 0
1xBet -0.25 2.65 / 1.79 0 1.88 / 1.78 -0.25 +0.25
BetVictor 0 1.79 / 1.56 0 1.70 / 1.63 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.00 10.00
-1.50 5.65 5.25
-1.25 4.91 4.80
-1.00 4.70 4.30
-0.75 3.20 3.04
-0.25 2.26 2.12
0 1.88 1.78
+0.25 1.58 1.54
+0.75 1.29 1.26
+1.00 1.14 1.12
+1.25 1.12 1.11
+1.50 1.09 1.08

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 6.00
-1.50 5.50 4.65
-1.25 4.80 4.25
-1.00 4.40 3.80
-0.75 3.30 2.85
-0.50 2.68 2.38
-0.25 2.35 2.10
0 1.92 1.88
+0.25 1.70 1.58
+0.50 1.55 1.45
+0.75 1.40 1.32
+1.00 1.25 1.20
+1.25 1.21 1.18
+1.50 1.18 1.15
+1.75 1.12 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.70 1.63

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.65 5.25
-1.25 4.80 4.80
-1.00 4.70 4.30
-0.75 3.20 3.04
-0.25 2.24 2.12
0 1.88 1.78
+0.25 1.58 1.52
+0.75 1.29 1.26
+1.00 1.14 1.12
+1.25 1.12 1.12
+1.50 1.09 1.08

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.29 3.07
-0.50 2.66 2.50
-0.25 2.31 2.17
0 1.93 1.81
+0.25 1.62 1.55
+0.50 1.45 1.40
+0.75 1.31 1.28
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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