Pazarspor vs Erbaaspor Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Pazarspor
Oct 07, 2026 - 11:00
1.33 1.27
Erbaaspor
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.50
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Pazarspor opened at -0.25 against Erbaaspor in the Türkiye Kupası. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Pazarspor -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Erbaaspor than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Pazarspor -0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.27
Price Advantage
+21.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.58 / 1.75 -0.25 2.58 / 1.75 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 2.70 / 1.99 -0.50 2.70 / 1.95 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.10 / 1.65 -0.25 2.75 / 1.80 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.64 / 1.75 -0.25 2.64 / 1.75 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.66 / 1.67 -0.25 2.73 / 1.75 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
xG 1.33 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.58
Pazarspor @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.27
Pazarspor @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.58 vs 2.27
Market price is 13.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.50 3.74
-1.00 5.45 2.92
-0.75 3.70 2.28
-0.25 2.64 1.75
0 2.31 1.55
+0.25 1.89 1.43
+0.75 1.50 1.20
+1.00 1.31 1.08
+1.50 1.19 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.60 3.55
-1.25 6.25 3.30
-1.00 5.75 3.00
-0.75 3.90 2.35
-0.50 3.10 2.05
-0.25 2.75 1.80
0 2.38 1.55
+0.25 2.00 1.42
+0.50 1.75 1.35
+0.75 1.58 1.24
+1.00 1.38 1.14
+1.25 1.32 1.12
+1.50 1.27 1.11

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.73 1.75
0 2.35 1.51
+0.25 1.93 1.38

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.50 3.74
-1.00 5.45 2.92
-0.75 3.70 2.28
-0.25 2.58 1.75
0 2.31 1.55
+0.25 1.89 1.40
+0.75 1.50 1.20
+1.00 1.31 1.08
+1.50 1.19 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.70 1.95
-0.25 2.57 1.74
0 2.28 1.52
+0.25 1.94 1.41
+0.50 1.75 1.37
Primary Bets
More