Ghazl El Mehalla vs Abu Qair Semad Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ghazl El Mehalla
Oct 08, 2026 - 17:00
1.31 1.29
Abu Qair Semad
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ghazl El Mehalla opened at -0.25 against Abu Qair Semad in the League Cup. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ghazl El Mehalla -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Abu Qair Semad than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Abu Qair Semad +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+57.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.83 / 2.62 -0.25 1.84 / 2.69 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.82 -0.25 2.01 / 2.71 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 2.75 -0.25 1.95 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.90 / 2.80 -0.25 1.86 / 2.69 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
xG 1.31 / 1.29 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.01
Ghazl El Mehalla @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.33
Ghazl El Mehalla @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.01 vs 2.33
Market price is 13.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.55 7.60
-1.00 3.58 6.50
-0.75 2.59 4.10
-0.25 1.86 2.69
0 1.54 2.25
+0.25 1.36 1.80
+0.75 1.16 1.39
+1.00 1.05 1.21
+1.50 1.03 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 4.00 6.80
-1.00 3.55 6.25
-0.75 2.68 4.10
-0.50 2.20 3.30
-0.25 1.95 2.75
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.42 1.85
+0.50 1.32 1.65
+0.75 1.23 1.45
+1.00 1.12 1.27
+1.25 1.10 1.23

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.55 7.60
-1.00 3.58 6.50
-0.75 2.59 4.10
-0.25 1.84 2.69
0 1.54 2.25
+0.25 1.36 1.78
+0.75 1.16 1.39
+1.00 1.05 1.21
+1.50 1.03 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.34 3.16
-0.25 2.01 2.71
0 1.63 2.25
+0.25 1.44 1.82
+0.50 1.33 1.59
Primary Bets
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